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total risk tools require logical process with holistic linkage between data, individual risk, societal, organizational, system description, conventional laws, principle for system design and operation need to be incorporated in the risk process. Verification and employment of system based approach in risk analysis should be followed with creation of database and identification of novel technologies required for implementation. Unwanted event which remain the central front of risk fight is an occurrence that has associated undesirable outcome which range from trivial to cata- strophic. Depending on conditions and solu- tion based technique in risk and reliability work, the model should be designed to pro- tect investment, properties, citizens, natural resources and the institution which has to function in sustainable manner within ac- ceptable risk. The risk and reliability modeling process
begins with definition of risk which stands for the measure of the frequency and sever- ity of consequence of an unwanted event.
Frequency at which a potential undesirable event occurs is expressed as events per unit time, often per year. Upon establishing under- standing of whole system from baseline data that include elements of channel and vessel dimensioning shown in figure 3, the frequency can be determined from historical data. How- ever, it is quite inherent that event that does not happen often attracts severe consequence and lack data. Such event is better analysed through probabilistic and stochastic model hybrid with first principle and use whatever data is available (Kite-Powell, H.L., D. Jin, N. M. Patrikalis, J. Jebsen, V. Papakonstantinou, 1996). Incidents are unwanted events that may or may not result to accidents if necessary measure is taken according to magnitude of event and required speed of response. While, accidents are unwanted events that have either immediate or delayed consequences. Immedi- ate consequences variables include injuries, loss of life, property damage and persons in peril. Point form consequences variables in- clude further loss of life, environmental dam-
FIGURE 3 Channel and vessel dimension.
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