Opinion
johncurtice@holyrood.com
“Armed with its unexpected majority, the SNP have donned a new mantle of assertiveness”
When reality bites John Curtice
Tere is little doubt that the SNP’s electoral success has generated quite considerable excitement. Scotland’s sweet air is full of talk of referendums and independence that quickens the pace of nationalist hearts and strikes fear in unionists. Every new day seems to unveil yet another dispute between London and Edinburgh. Armed with its unexpected majority, the SNP have donned a new mantle of assertiveness. But now that the long and languid days of
summer are finally with us, the fever should die down for a while. Holyrood’s politicians will be heading for the beach or the mountain or wherever it is that they like to unwind. And as they relax, so they should find the space to stand back from the excitement of recent weeks and consider the prospect that will befall them when they return to their desks once more. As they do so, one important realisation might well begin to hit them
– a lot of water is due to flow under a lot of bridges before the much talked about independence referendum is held. Given Mr Salmond’s commitment not to put the proposition before the Scottish people until some time in the second half of the new parliament, the ballot is at least two years away and could be as many as four. So what will be occupying the new government in the intervening
period? Nothing so demanding that it distracts it from the task of persuading a majority of people in Scotland to back independence? Hardly. Rather it will have to play the toughest hand to have been dealt any Scottish government since the advent of devolution – to run Scotland’s devolved public services at a time when, thanks to an ageing population, the demand for such services is set to increase but when the resources to provide them is going to diminish. Playing that hand has not been made any easier by the various
promises the SNP made while seeking re-election. Te party has chosen to deny itself much of the room for manoeuvre, limited as it is, that is potentially available to Scottish governments under the current devolution settlement. Te one key tax over which the Scottish Government does have some influence – council tax – is to be frozen. Services for which it could begin to charge – such as university tuition or the provision of personal care – are to remain free. Even the apparently easy hit of freeing up some capital spending by mutualising Scottish Water has been eschewed. So how is the circle to be squared? Apart from a potshot at higher
education – but supposedly for one year only – the SNP’s austerity strategy so far has had two key prongs. Te first has been to keep the public sector wage bill down by freezing the salaries of all but the lowest paid. Te second has been to seek ‘efficiency savings’ – or in other words, to assume that the public sector will prove able to do more for less. Te attractions of this strategy are obvious. Te health service
excepted, the pain is shared more or less across the board. Difficult and potentially contentious decisions to cut this or to stop doing that are avoided. Te sensitivity of the new administration to specific cuts
72 Holyrood 27 June 2011
that have identifiable losers has already been demonstrated in the pressure the Education Secretary, Mike Russell, has put on Argyll Council not to close some of its small rural schools. But the potential pitfalls are also obvious.
Although Scotland’s Auditor General has argued that greater efficiencies have been achieved in recent years, there is certainly widespread doubt that sufficient savings can continue to be made at the necessary level in future – or indeed that significant efficiencies can be achieved at all without widespread changes to the way that Scotland’s services are delivered. Tere us much talk too of switching spending from prevention to cure, but even
if achieved, the spending on prevention usually has to happen now while the savings on cure only occur some way down the track. What will happen if the necessary savings are not achieved?
Quite simply, the quality of public services will begin to deteriorate. Prospective students may discover the university course they intended to take has been cut. Parents may find their children are sent home because their school cannot afford to replace a teacher who is ill. Older people could find that their packages of care no longer meet their needs. Te deterioration will be slow and gradual. But it will begin to be noticed when the media find stories of undeserved hardship because a service has let someone down – such as the older person who falls down the stairs after a care worker no longer comes round to help her get up in the morning. As such stories accumulate, who is likely to be blamed? Well, of
course, the SNP Scottish Government. Meanwhile, just as this particular storm begins to brew, the Government could also find that keeping the lid on public sector pay becomes impossible as workers react to the rapid erosion of their real incomes, thanks to continuing inflation. Balancing the Scottish budget suddenly becomes even more difficult What then might the Government do? Pursue a more radical
programme of service restructuring in order to achieve the necessary efficiency savings? Trouble is, that might require compulsory redundancies, something against which the SNP has also set its face. Mutualise Scottish Water after all? Or come to the conclusion that it really does need more revenue – and begins to think, perhaps, of a ‘local surcharge’ or a ‘university services fee’? Deteriorating public services. Broken promises. Falling poll ratings.
Not a happy backdrop against which to fight a referendum – as Nick Clegg can all too readily testify. Maybe none of this will come to pass. Inspired by the
recommendations of the Christie Commission, to be published in time to be included in their holiday reading, perhaps ministers will find a way of playing their tough hand well. However, a lot is resting on whether or not, once summer is over, they can manage to do so.
John Curtice is Professor of Politics, Strathclyde University
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