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31 DATA


PROPERTY MARKET PERFORMANCE All retail capital value growth (%)


2.0


1.5 1.0 0.5


0 -0.5


Mar 10


Apr 10


May 10


Jun 10


Jul 10


Aug 10


Source: IPD Monthly Market Segments


The distractions of Easter, the royal wedding and the related flurry of bank holidays detract from an underlying picture of heightening uncertainty in retail and retail property markets. Figures from IPD show that as a whole capital values for the retail sector were up by 0.42 per cent in March 2011, the highest rate of monthly growth since June 2010. However, capital values for shopping centres were static. Stephen Springham, head of retail research at King Sturge, said: “There is yet to be any discernible uptick in occupational markets.


FOOTFALL INDEX


Footfall decreased by -2.1 per cent year-on-year in April which was down at similar levels year-on- year to both February and March. The month of April incorporated Easter with its Bank Holidays, school term holidays and the royal wedding all adding to the complexity of year-on-year footfall comparisons. The month started with a week that made a comparison year-on-year to school term holiday the year before, deflating year-on-year figures and resulting in the weekly year-on-year variance of -5.5 per cent, which was the third biggest weekly year-on-year drop this year. The third week was the lead up to Easter and with a comparison year-on-year to a normal week, one not skewed by special events, footfall increased by +1.3 per cent. The final week of the month was inclusive of a Bank Holiday Monday and the newly formed Bank Holiday royal wedding Friday. Footfall increased significantly up to the Friday as it was anticipated that many people would have taken advantage of using three days annual leave to gain 11 consecutive days holiday. Footfall did however drop by -33 per cent on the royal wedding day and didn’t recover over the weekend, so the final week saw footfall drop by -4.0 per cent year-on-year. Retail parks were down slightly further than the


shopping centre’s at -2.6 per cent but trended in a similar way until the last week of the month where they showed better growth within the royal wedding week.


Sep 10


Oct 10


Nov 10


Dec 10


Jan 11


Feb 11


Mar 11


0.2 0


0.1


-0.2 -0.1 -0.3


-0.4


-0.5 -0.7


-0.6 All retail -0.8


Mar 10


Apr 10


May 10


Jun 10


Jul 10


Aug 10


Source: IPD Monthly Market Segments


Rental values for all retail were down by 0.1 per cent in March 2011. Rents have been down every month since June 2008, with just two isolated exceptions – August 2008 and October 2010. Shopping centres continue to be the worst-performing retail sub-category, with rents tumbling a further 0.51 per cent in March 2011. With retail sales volumes coming under increasing pressure (‘headline’ retail sales growth driven by inflation and the timing of Easter), the occupier market is cautious, at best.”


Sep 10


Oct 10


Nov 10


Dec 10


Jan 11


Feb 11


Mar 11


Shopping centres All retail rental value growth (%)


www.shopping-centre.co.uk May 2011 SHOPPING CENTRE


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