51 DATA


PROPERTY MARKET PERFORMANCE All retail capital value growth (%)


2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0


1.5 1.0 0.5


-0.5 0


Dec 09


Jan 10


Feb 10


Mar 10


Apr 10


May 10


Source: IPD Monthly Market Segments


Figures from IPD’s Monthly Market Segments research showed that capital values for all retail property grew by 0.25 per cent in December 2010, the fastest level of monthly growth since June. And there was even better news for the shopping centre market – having witnessed two months of declines, capital values grew by 0.13 per cent in December. “Whether the dreaded ‘double dip’ has been staved off remains


a moot point and it remains to be seen whether these figures were just seasonal one-offs” said Stephen Springham, head of retail research at King Sturge. “While economists pontificated about the effects of austerity measures and VAT increases and retailers battled


Shoppers are feeling a lot gloomier about their financial prospects for 2011 compared to last year, according to IGD’s latest ShopperTrack research. Over 1,000 shoppers were


UK SHOPPERS BATTEN DOWN THE HATCHES I will be a lot worse off (18 per


cent v. 5 per cent) And analysing the responses


by demographic, these shoppers said they expected to be worse- off:


surveyed by ShopperTrack between 4 and 31 January 2011 and over three-fifths (61 per cent) of them think they will be worse-off in the next 12 months – more than double the level (27 per cent) in October 2010. When asked by ShopperTrack,


‘how do you expect your personal circumstances to change in the next 12 months?, shoppers said: I will be a lot better off (1 per


cent v. 8 per cent October 2010) I will be slightly better off (9 per cent v. 21 per cent)


v. 44 per cent)


About the same (29 per cent I will be slightly worse off (42


per cent v. 22 per cent)


68 per cent from the DE socio-economic group 56 per cent from the ABC1s 65 per cent of over-55’s 67 per cent of 35-54 year-


olds year-olds


But only 45 per cent of 18-34 Responding to more


pressures on their income, such as higher petrol prices, shoppers across the board say they plan to cut back on spending. on: Eating or drinking out (61 per


cent) cent)


Clothes shopping (58 per


Going out to the theatre/ cinema/concerts (48 per cent) Holidays (43 per cent)


Jun 10


Jul 10


Aug 10


Sep 10


Oct 10


Nov 10


Dec 10


All retail rental value growth (%) 0


-0.2 -0.1


-0.3 -0.4


-0.5 -0.6 -0.7


All retail -0.8


Dec 09


Jan 10


Feb 10


Mar 10


Apr 10


May 10


Source: IPD Monthly Market Segments


against much more pragmatic issues such as the weather, the retail property market had a better month than perhaps feared.” The rental market remains more mixed. The headline figure for


all retail is still in negative territory (-0.02 per cent in December). However, this figure masks significant disparities between the various segments, particularly an in-town/out-of-town divide. Retail warehouses saw strong (and accelerating) growth of 0.34 per cent, but rents in shopping centres showed a worrying decline of 0.52 per cent. “Although investment markets are showing improvement, this has yet to be reflected in their occupier counterparts,” concluded Springham.


Jun 10


Jul 10


Aug 10


Sep 10


Oct 10


Nov 10


Dec 10


Shopping centres


Home entertainment such as


DVDs, payTV (41 per cent) Treating yourself such as


beauty treatment, massage (39 per cent) Travelling by car (34 per cent) Cutting back on savings (33


per cent) Charitable donations (32 per


cent) Home and garden


improvements (32 per cent) Food shopping (32 per cent) Joanne Denney-Finch, chief


executive, IGD, said: “Shoppers are clearly feeling a lot more downbeat than they were last year and plan to do some major belt tightening. Shoppers of all ages and across all socio- economic groups are telling us they intend to cut back on non- essentials, such as going to the theatre or on holiday. “Shoppers seem to be less keen to economise on their


food and grocery shopping, with only around a third (32 per cent) citing this as a category they intend to spend less on. But this figure could be even lower, as our research also reveals that 32 per cent of shoppers mistakenly believe that January’s VAT increase applies to all their food and grocery shopping.” ‘The Government increased VAT to 20 per cent on 4 January 2011, and it is clear there is widespread confusion over which items are VAT-able and which are exempt. Asked to identify areas that would be hit shoppers said: . All my food and groceries (32 per cent) Main meal items, like fresh meat or ready meals (28 per cent) Some treat foods and drinks, like sweets, crisps and ice-cream (61 per cent)


Alcohol and tobacco (79 per cent)


www.shopping-centre.co.uk February 2011 SHOPPING CENTRE


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