period, we will have a peak price year with wheat at around £165/tonne, a trough price year at say £85/tonne and three other years averaging around £115/tonne. All prices assume a constant exchange rate of 1 euro = £0. 75 (currently 1 euro = £0.83) and thus subject to +/-15% variation depending on actual exchange rates at the time. Nobody can reliably predict which year of any five will be the peak or the trough. (Having said that, based on my five year view, if I was a wheat producer, I would be very tempted by today’s November 2011 wheat futures at £169/tonne and even some November 2012 at £147/tonne!).
Each consecutive five year average price will be marginally higher than the previous, in line with my long term predictions. Following this theory through, then I would encourage any grain related
Old Mill celebrate the ‘Best in the West’
A young farm accountant at Old Mill has been nicknamed the ‘Best in the West’, after achieving the top score for the region in one of his exams.
Dan Knight, who joined the farm accounts team in Exeter in 2007, scored the highest Business Reporting paper in the South West, qualifying him as a chartered accountant. But he remains true to his farming roots, relief milking for a neighbour on weekends to keep his hand in.
Having grown up on a dairy farm at Forde Abbey, Dan studied agricultural management at Cannington College before training in accountancy. “I have been milking cows and goats since I was 10, but I had a flair for budgeting and numbers, and wanted to do something a bit different,” he said. “It’s absolutely fantastic working with Old Mill – I get all the benefits of using my head while helping farming people.”
Old Mill are always keen to train quality staff to the highest professional standards, and to score top in the chartered exams in the West is a great achievement. However, our specialist accountants are also passionate about agriculture. Many of our 50-strong farm accounts team have a background in
business (producer or consumer) to take a rolling five year view and certainly not base its performance or prospects on either of the individual peak or trough years.
It wasn’t until the impact of the MacSharry CAP reforms in the mid 1990s that UK dairy and arable farmers were exposed to the international commodity markets – until then being insulated by the intervention buying mechanisms. Looking forward, I hope UK farm prices for all commodity related products will be more directly and transparently linked to world prices – because I have every confidence in the long term prospects for world demand for food and its consequent impact on prices, as well as recognising the inability of UK retailers to influence internationally traded commodity prices.
farming, which helps them to fully understand the needs of our rural clients.
If you are interested in a career in accounting of financial planning please visit our website or contact us
careers@oldmillgroup.co.uk
Dan Knight
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