19 DATA
FOOTFALL INDEX November historically has seen footfall levels increase
month-on-month at an average of 6.3 per cent for the last three years. Although we’ve seen an increase month- on-month this year too, it’s not as notable as previous years at 3.3 per cent. Each of the weeks within November experienced year-on-year drops in FootFall and with the adverse weather conditions impacting most of the UK towards the end of the month; it’s no surprise FootFall fell further negatively in the last week. Perhaps consumers this Christmas will be drawn more
towards well known, established brands and department stores who offer good levels of customer service; the economy may still be worrying shoppers and they’ll want to shop with retailers they can trust. The regional year-on-year growths were quite diverse
across the country. Eastern experienced a -6.4 per cent decrease, the north east a -5.7 per cent drop and Yorkshire-Humber falling by -4.9 per cent. Although the weather would have immobilised parts of the country for only a small period during the month, it’s clear it had an impact on year-on-year growth for the month as a whole. The northern and eastern parts of the UK experiencing the worst of it with west Midlands and south west & Wales faring best, seeing -1.6 per cent and +1.6 per cent year-on- year FootFall volumes respectively. The year-on-year growth rate for the UK National Index
stood at -2.2 per cent. October saw a year-on-year drop of -0.9 per cent and the only other month on the year where FootFall fell further was January when it was down by -2.6 per cent.
PROPERTYMARKET PERFORMANCE All retail capital value growth (%)
2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
1.5 1.0 0.5
-0.5 0
Oct 09
Nov 09
Dec 09
Jan 10
Feb 10
Mar 10
Source: IPD Monthly Market Segments
The long-heralded (and much feared) double dip in property markets is starting to materialise. According to IPD, capital values for shopping centres contracted by 0.12 per cent in October 2010, marking the first month of decline since August 2009. Shopping centres were the worst performing sub-sector, with
standard shops outside the south east the only other category in negative territory (-0.02 per cent). Capital values for all retail grew by 0.09 per cent, the rebound in September 2010 proving a false dawn.
Apr 10
May 10
Jun 10
Jul 10
Aug 10
Sep 10
Oct 10
All retail rental value growth (%) 0
-0.2 -0.1
-0.3 -0.4
-0.5 -0.6 -0.7
All retail -0.8
Oct 09
Nov 09
Dec 09
Jan 10
Feb 10
Mar 10
Source: IPD Monthly Market Segments To compound the gloom, King Sturge’s head of retail research,
Stephen Springham, says there is only limited improvement in occupier markets. Rental markets for all retail property declined by 0.09 per cent in October, broadly in line with the previous two months. However, this figure was blighted by very poor rental performance at standard shops outside the south east (-0.36 per cent). On a more positive front, the rate of decline in shopping centres (-0.07 per cent) was the least severe since July 2008.
www.shopping-centre.co.uk December 2010 SHOPPING CENTRE
Apr 10
May 10
Jun 10
Jul 10
Aug 10
Sep 10
Oct 10
Shopping centres
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