24 DATA
DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE DRIES UP The number of new
shopping centres being completed in the UK this year is likely to fall by around 40 per cent below the 10-year annual average, according to new research from Cushman & Wakefield. Just 80,000 sq m of
shopping centre GLA was added to the market in the first half of 2010 and completion levels are not likely to pick up before late 2012/early 2013. Approximately 135,000 sq
m and 260,000 sq m is due for completion in the second half of 2010 and 2011 respectively. The most pipeline
development activity is taking place in Greater London with Stratford City, One New Change and Central Square currently under construction. Toby Sykes, retail
services partner at Cushman & Wakefield, said: “The pre- letting threshold we have achieved on the Trinity Leeds scheme for Land Securities shows that there is still strong retailer demand for prime new retail and leisure developments in UK towns and cities which are carefully designed with specific retailer requirements in mind.” Darren Yates, associate
in Cushman & Wakefield’s European Research Group, said: “Development activity is expected to remain subdued in the short term. However, some of the large developers are considering restarting projects which were put on hold. Much will depend on the economic outlook which remains uncertain. “A gradual reduction in
availability over the next 12 months should support rental levels and modest rental growth as retailers compete for an ever-diminishing pipeline, but secondary schemes may see further rental falls.”
SALES UP ON WEAK COMPARABLES UK retail sales values were
up 0.5 per cent on a like-for-like basis from September 2009, when sales had risen 2.8 per cent. On a total basis, sales were up 2.2 per cent against a 4.9 per cent increase in September 2009. Food sales growth
picked up a little. Menswear and childrenswear slowed after a good August, while womenswear improved very slightly but was still only marginally up on a year ago. Cooler, wetter weather helped autumn/winter ranges, led by outerwear. Hosiery also benefited. Coats, jackets and knitwear did well, with smart casual separates often preferred to formal suits, being wearable on more occasions. Accessories were mixed, but with good sales of handbags and jewellery for some. Footwear sales improved, helped by cold wet weather and new autumn/winter ranges. Toiletries and cosmetics
growth picked up a little though sales were often promotion- driven. Cold weather helped skincare and cough/cold, while suncare, first aid and hayfever slowed. Perfumery benefited from new launches. Home accessory sales
slowed sharply, to show virtually Month
no growth. House textiles sales slowed less, gaining some benefit from the cold weather which boosted bed linen and duvets. Mindsets turned to indoors, giving some support to lighting, cleaning and floorcare. Kitchen and dining basics were helped by back-to college. Furniture and floorcoverings
was the only sector where sales were actually down on a year ago. Larger purchases in particular were affected by consumer uncertainty over job cuts and income prospects. Non-food non-store sales
(internet, mail-order and phone sales) strengthened further in September and were 19.1 per cent higher than a year ago, the best since May, but amid increased promotional activity. Stephen Robertson, director
general at the British Retail Consortium, said: “Sales growth continues to be poor. We’ve now had six straight months of low growth thanks to persistently weak consumer confidence and worries about the future. “What growth there was
largely came from food with the performance helped by food inflation. “Overall, non-food sales
were down on a year ago for the first time since mid 2009.
RETAIL SALES VALUE: Percentage change year-on-year 2008
January February March April May June July
August
September October
November December
January – July average January – December average
Like for like 2.6
1.5
-1.6 -1.5 1.9
-0.4 -0.9 -1.0 -1.5 -2.2 -2.6 -3.3 0.2
-0.8 Source: BRC-KPMG RSM (food & drink data from IGD)
Total 4.9
3.9 1.1
1.0 4.6 2.1 1.7 1.4 1.0
-0.1 -0.4 -1.4 2.7
1.6
-1.8 -1.2 4.6
-0.8 1.4 1.8
-0.1 1.6 3.8 1.8 4.2 0.7
1.4 2009
Like for like 1.1
Total 3.2
0.1
0.6 6.3 0.8 3.2 3.6 2.2 3.7
5.9 4.1 6
2.5 3.3
With VAT higher than it was last year, and pushing up sales values, it’s an even worse performance than it looks. There is little evidence yet of major purchases being brought forward from 2011 to beat the coming VAT increase. “Despite widespread
discounting, sales of major items had the toughest time. It’s clear people are cautious and major spending is largely on hold.” Helen Dickinson, head of
retail at KPMG, said: “The value of food sales crept up slightly as the impact of inflationary pressures continued to filter through. Non-food sales as a whole remained sluggish overall with like-for-like sales dipping into negative territory in September. But this is with significant variation in performance across individual sectors – footwear maintained the top spot in growth terms while furniture and floorcoverings was firmly entrenched once again as the worst performing sector, mirroring the recent news of house price falls. We hold our breath as to whether the upcoming Public Spending Review will derail current retail spending further – confidence is fragile.”
2010
Like for like -0.7
2.2 4.4
-2.3 0.8 1.2 .5
1.0 0.5
Total 1.2
4.5 6.6
-0.2 3.0 3.4 2.6 2.8 2.2
SHOPPING CENTRE October 2010
www.shopping-centre.co.uk
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