UK: Domestic resident visitor spend‐% total % total


20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60%


Figs 4.1 and 4.2: Domestic and overseas visitor scenarios UK: Visitor spendin UK ‐ overseas residents


£bn 25


21 17 13


UK overnight % total (Baseline) UK overnight % total (Midway) UK overnight % total (Cameron)


1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 Source: UKTS, ONS, OxfordEconomics


9 5


1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 Source: ONS, OxfordEconomics


Figs 4.3 and 4.4: Direct hospitality employment contribution scenarios UK: Direct hospitality employment 000s 3,300 3,100 2,900 8.5% 2,700 8.0% 2,500 2,300 2,100 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Source: ABI, LFS, Oxford Economics 7.5%


Baseline Midway Cameron


UK: Direct hospitality employment share of total economy


% total 9.5%


Baseline Midway Cameron


9.0%


Overseas resident (Baseline) Overseas resident (Midway) Overseas resident (Cameron)


7.0%


1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Source: ABI, LFS, Oxford Economics


 A useful validation check on the scenario assumptions and impact is to look at the visitor spend balance of payments forecast (overseas visitor spend in UK minus UK resident visitor spend overseas). This shows a reversal in the longstanding widening deficit trend (save for the recession) under the Cameron 50:50 scenario, again emphasising how, given historical performance, this scenario looks unrealistic.


 The deficit trend remains on a downward path for the ‘Midway’ scenario, although a less steep path compared to the trend baseline scenario. Again this provides evidence that the ‘Midway’ scenario has a higher likelihood of being realised


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