Contents


Summary ...................................................................................................... i Current contribution ............................................................................................. i Future contribution .............................................................................................. ii


1 Introduction and background .......................................................... 1


1.1 Study scope and objectives ...................................................................... 1 1.2 The channels of economic impact ............................................................ 1 1.3 Background on BHA ................................................................................. 2 1.4 SIC sectors within the hospitality economy definition ............................................................................................................ 2 1.5 Overlap between hospitality and tourism .................................................. 4 1.6 Economy and industry backdrop ............................................................... 5 1.7 Report structure ........................................................................................ 5


2 Direct contribution ........................................................................... 7


2.1 Employment .............................................................................................. 7 2.2 GVA and turnover ................................................................................... 11 2.3 Gross exchequer tax revenue ................................................................. 12 2.4 Exports / in-bound spending ................................................................... 12 2.5 Investment .............................................................................................. 13


3 Multipliers and supply chain linkages .......................................... 14


3.1 Indirect and induced contribution ............................................................ 14 3.2 Catalytic contribution .............................................................................. 15


4 Future scenario contributions ....................................................... 16


4.1 Trend baseline scenario ......................................................................... 16 4.2 Cameron 50:50 scenario ........................................................................ 16 4.3 Midway scenario ..................................................................................... 18 4.4 Summary of scenario assumptions and impacts ............................................................................................................ 18


Annex A: Detailed SIC code definition of UK hospitality economy ................................................................................ 21


Hotels & related services ................................................................................. 21 Restaurants & related services ........................................................................ 22 Contract catering ............................................................................................. 23 Event management ......................................................................................... 23 Temporary hospitality employment .................................................................. 24


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