37 ENERGY Revolution
Wildly fluctuating oil prices have confused the world energy picture for too long. This has caused the U.S. political decision makers to give these issues a renewed focus and some practical policy proposals.
BY MALCOLM MAITLAND
reaching record levels, the push for re- newable solutions to the world’s energy needs was given added impetus. All kinds of fringe, even downright dubious, technologies were taking on a different, more attractive aspect as the price of crude hit $140 a barrel. But then the oil price fell off a cliff
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and many green energy bets were of f. Suddenly, making ethanol out of strange-sounding bacteria didn’t seem such a good idea after all. Christophe de Margerie, chief executive of the French oil company Total (who usually argues for governments to get out of the way of those trying to bring enough energy to the market to satisfy demand), says re- cent events mean governments need to consider helping green energy sources and technologies made uneconomical by falling oil prices. Other energy indus- try executives say environmental initia- tives and emerging technologies such as carbon capture and storage must not be abandoned simply because of cur- rent economics. What motivates the comments of Christophe de Margerie and his industry
he world market for energy has undergone a revolution in the past year; two revolutions, in fact. Recently, with oil prices
colleagues is clearly self-interest and an awareness of the wider problem. What- ever the vagaries of the world economy, fossil fuels are running out, albeit slowly, and the consequences of burning them appears to be more threatening by the year. The big question is whether the new technologies can advance fast enough to bridge the energy gap.
PRICES AND POLITICS
Regardless of the oil price, energy re- mains a big political issue. Many modern politicians appreciate that they will be judged by future generations on how they met the 21st century energy challenge. That is why José Manuel Barroso,
president of the European Commission, has talked about the upheaval in the energy industry as a “third industrial revolution” set to change economies and societies as profoundly as the steam- powered first wave of industrialization in the 19th century, or the oil-fuelled devel- opment of motor and air transport in the 20th century. Energy was a big issue in the U.S.
elections. Barack Obama called for a “transformation” of the economy to make America independent of imported energy
and to fight the threat of climate change. “Energy independence will require an all- hands-on-deck effort from America: effort from our scientists and entrepreneurs, from businesses, and from every Ameri- can citizen,” he said in a speech during the final weeks of the campaign. John McCain, his unsuccessful rival,
strongly backed nuclear power, calling for 45 new nuclear plants to be built by 2030. Sarah Palin, his vice presidential candidate, also called for “energy inde- pendence.” But it will not be politicians who ulti-
mately unpick the lock of the door to a uni- versal green energy solution, even if they continue to subsidize some technologies such as the wind power and biofuels in- dustries. There is some doubt whether it will be the existing energy corporations like Exxon Mobil, Total, and Royal Dutch Shell—all of which are engaged in green energy investments—because those in- vestments represent only a tiny proportion of their total research and development commitment. The fossil fuels they exploit and make the majority of their profits from will still be underpinning the world econo- my for many years to come. Oil, gas, and coal still provide about
four-fifths of the world’s energy. Will that be the case decades from now? Lead- ers who recognize the threat of climate change are doing everything possible to ensure that dirty energy becomes a thing of the past. For transport purposes, no alternative
has yet been found to match the conve- nience and cost of petrol or diesel. Hopes invested in biofuels have drained away as food prices have soared. For power gen- eration, similarly, none of the nuclear or renewable alternatives can yet match the combination of low investment cost and project risk with high reliability that is pro- vided by coal- and gas-fired plants. The International Energy Agency estimated a year ago that under existing policies, fossil fuels’ contribution to the world’s energy
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PLANET EARTH \\ ENERGY REVOLUTION
ISTOCKPHOTO (2); JOE MABEL; THORBJOERN
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