Insight
CARRIER ETHERNET TO CONTINUE TO GROW THROUGH 2013 Carrier Ethernet equipment manufacturer revenue is projected to grow to $34 billion by 2013, according to Infonetics Research. IP NGN transformation projects depend heavily on IP, MPLS, and Ethernet, and are gradually employing the use of Ethernet transport instead of Sonet/SDH. Carrier Ethernet technology is integral to service provider IP NGN projects aimed at transforming from TDM- to packet-based networks to handle ever-growing consumer, business, mobile backhaul, and video traffic. Service provider investment in carrier Ethernet continues to defy the economic downturn and outpace overall telecom capital expenditure
FACT
Ethernet microwave is the fastest growing carrier Ethernet technology based on its use for mobile backhaul, according to Infonetics Research. Cisco led in worldwide revenue market share for carrier Ethernet switches, IP core routers (Ethernet), and IP edge routers (Ethernet) in 2008.
GLOBAL CARRIER ETHERNET EQUIPMENT REVENUE, 2009-2013 35
0
2009
2011 Calendar year Source: Infonetics Research
investments, according to Infonetics Research. Over the five years from 2009 to 2013, the research firm expects service providers worldwide to spend a cumulative $146 billion on carrier Ethernet equipment.
ETHERNET SWITCH CAPACITY GROWING Enterprises are actively consolidating their data centres. There is a strong business case for enterprises to increase the utilisation and control of their assets by consolidating them to a central location. According to Dell’Oro Group’s Ethernet Switch July 2009 Five-Year Forecast report, this consolidation has been enabled by faster WAN connections, WAN optimisation technology to decrease latency in delivering applications and server blades. At the same time, there are signs that various technology silos in the data centre might also start being consolidated: specifically, Ethernet, fibre channel, and high performance computing (HPC) technologies (Myrinet, Quadrics, and Infiniband), according to Dell’Oro Group. The research firm believes the early signs indicate that Ethernet will be the converged fabric of choice. 10 Gigabit Ethernet is very much at the forefront of this consolidation, currently as an aggregation technology.
10GBPS PORT CAPACITY DOMINATES During the service provider outer market expansion from 2003 through 2008, OC192/STM64 and 10 Gigabit Ethernet (10GE) ports became increasingly popular, first as single ports on 10Gbps line cards and later as two ports on 20Gbps or four ports on 40Gbps line cards, according to Dell’Oro. In terms of total capacity shipments, 10Gbps ports accounted for the majority of port capacity through 2008, and will continue to be the dominant technology over the next five years. By 2011, Dell’Oro Group believes 100Gbps line cards will be available in many router platforms. These line cards will support 100GE ports but, more importantly, they will support 10 10GE ports. The increase in 10GE port densities on a single line card will enable reduced price points on a per-port basis and improve operational efficiencies – important drivers for increased product demand, according to Dell’Oro Group.
WORLDWIDE ETHERNET SWITCH MARKET SHIPPING CAPACITY, 2007-2013 420
Unmanaged Fixed managed Modular
2013
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Dell’Oro Group
SERVICE PROVIDER ROUTER CAPACITY, 2006-2013 6,000 3,000
100 Gbps ports 40 Gbps ports 10 Gbps ports 2.5 Gbps ports
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Calendar year
Source: Dell’Oro Group
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www.capacitymedia.com
Capacity (terabits per second)
Capacity shipping (petabits)
Revenue (US$ billion)
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