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DATA
FOOTFALL INDEX
Footfall rose 1.6 per cent in April compared with the same time last year, while May Bank Holiday saw a year- on-year rise of nearly 5 per cent. The Experian Footfall index has revealed three
consecutive months of positive growth for the first time in two years. The wet May Bank Holiday resulted in a substantial increase of 4.9 per cent, while the outcome of the General Election saw 1.9 per cent fewer shoppers on the high street on Friday 7 May compared to the same Friday last year. By Saturday performance was flat, but shoppers returned in their droves on Sunday resulting in a 5.5 per cent increase year-on-year. According to Experian’s senior analyst Anita Manan:
“April’s performance is encouraging given we saw some sunshine last month as well as the half-term holidays and six days of Air Traffic disruption caused by volcanic ash. “In spite of February’s snow impacting figures at
the start of spring, in the past three months we have witnessed a succession of positive year-on-year rises, the first in two years. This may indicate consumer confidence is stabilising, although we should remain cautious since tough trading conditions persist and some retailers have been discounting heavily to clear stock. “The rise in footfall to retail parks is likely to have been
driven by consumers shopping for their home and garden in light of the good weather we have been enjoying. If the sunshine continues in May, retailers will be hoping for a further increase in footfall as they look to promote outdoor leisure items such as barbecues, DIY and gardening accessories.”
PROPERTY MARKET PERFORMANCE
All retail capital value growth (%)
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
Mar 09
Apr 09
May 09
Jun 09
Jul 09
Aug 09
Source: IPD Monthly Market Segments
The strong rally in retail property investment markets continues apace, albeit with growing signs of a market that is ‘pausing for breath’. According to IPD, capital values for all retail increased by 1.65 per cent in March. Capital values for shopping centres lagged behind this growth at 1.41 per cent as they were outperformed by retail warehousing (+1.95 per cent) and standard shops in the South East (+1.50 per cent). Disappointingly, the recent trend of a deceleration in rental decline reversed over the last month. The rate of decline in March (-0.24 per
SHOPPING CENTRE May 2010
www.shopping-centre.co.uk
Sep 09
Oct 09
Nov 09
Dec 09
Jan 10
Feb 10
Mar 10
-1.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 -1 0
Mar 09
Apr 09
May 09
Jun 09
Jul 09
Aug 09
Source: IPD Monthly Market Segments
cent) was higher than the preceding month, emphasising again the slow recovery in occupier markets. And Stephen Springham, head of retail research at King Sturge believes retail rents are unlikely to move back into positive territory until next year. In isolation from the other property segments, shopping centres saw
rents slip back by -0.34 per cent in March, a more severe decline than in retail warehousing (-0.11 per cent), but a marginally better performance than standard shops (-0.37 per cent).
All retail rental value growth (%)
All retail
Sep 09
Oct 09
Nov 09
Shopping centres
Dec 09
Jan 10
Feb 10
Mar 10
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