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17

DATA

PROPERTY MARKET PERFORMANCE

All retail capital value growth (%)

-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4

Feb 09

Mar 09

Apr 09

May 09

Jun 09

Jul 09

Source: IPD Monthly Market Segments

After a slowdown in the rate of growth in January, the recovery in retail property investment markets rebounded in February. IPD data shows capital values for all retail increased by 1.63 per cent in February. Capital values for shopping centres increased by a broadly similar rate – 1.56 per cent. This marked a catch up, as shopping centres have tended to underperform the other retail sectors of late. Retail warehousing is still the fastest growing sub-sector, but the gap is narrowing. And Stephen Springham, head of retail research at King Sturge says

FOOTFALL INDEX

The Experian FootFall UK National Index for March

2010 up until the end of Easter weekend revealed a year-on-year positive performance of 1.0 per cent and a modest month-on-month uplift of 0.1 per cent. Wales and the South West was by far the strongest

performing region, with a 13.5 per cent increase in footfall compared with 2009. The West Midlands saw an increase of 2.1 per cent. However Northern Ireland suffered a 4.6 per cent drop, with a fall of 3.9 per cent in the North East. The retail park sector offered a significant boost, with a substantial year-on-year increase of 7.8 per cent in shopper numbers. Anita Manan, senior analyst at Experian, commented:

“The modest month-on-month uplift of 0.1 per cent was buoyed by the wet weather conditions, influencing shoppers to head to the high street over the Easter weekend. It’s also likely that the use of online promotions to drive in-store shopper traffic played a key role in offering retailers some welcome relief.” Experian also analysed visits to retail websites

over the Easter holiday period (Good Friday to Easter Monday) and found an increase of 0.8 per cent in the UK compared with Easter 2009. “Retailers did particularly well on Easter Monday, which

was the fifth busiest day for online retailers so far during 2010, with visits increasing by 3.6 per cent between 2009 and 2010. This illustrates the importance of the online retail channel during busy retail periods,” said Robin Goad, director of research at Experian Hitwise.

www.shopping-centre.co.uk April 2010 SHOPPING CENTRE

Aug 09

Sep 09

Oct 09

Nov 09

Dec 09

Jan 10

Feb 10

-1.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 -1 0

Feb 09

Mar 09

All retail rental value growth (%)

All retail

Apr 09

May 09

Shopping centres

Jun 09

Jul 09

Source: IPD Monthly Market Segments

there is evidence to suggest that the decline in rents is bottoming out. Although retail rents have gone backwards now for 21 consecutive months, the rate of decline in February (-0.11 per cent) was the lowest since before the Lehman collapse in September 2008. This was mirrored in the performance of shopping centres, where rents slipped back by just 0.08 per cent in February. Having witnessed steeper rental declines than other retail sectors in recent months, shopping centres are gradually converging with retail warehousing.

Aug 09

Sep 09

Oct 09

Nov 09

Dec 09

Jan 10

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