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16

DATA

DEVELOPMENT UNLIKELY TO PICK UP BEFORE 2012, WARNS C&W

The rate of new shopping centre space being developed in Europe is unlikely to pick up before 2012 at the earliest, according to Cushman & Wakefield In its new European Shopping Centre Development report, the agent said 2009 saw the sharpest

decrease in new shopping centre space in almost 15 years at 7.4m sq m – a 19 per cent fall on 2008. In 2010, an estimated 6.1m sq m should be completed. And shopping centre development is expected to hit its lowest level in seven years in 2011, with 5m sq m due to be completed – 46 per cent down on the peak of around 9.3m sq m in 2008. However, Cushman & Wakefield said that a large number of shelved shopping centre projects

could be revived relatively quickly should the European economy bounce back. Russia once again dominates Europe in the country ranking of shopping centre pipeline space

after losing out to Turkey in 2009, with 2.5m sq m of space in development and scheduled to open by the end of 2011. Over in Western Europe, Italy, France and Spain saw the most new space completed in 2009. The Italian market has been especially resilient, with only 20 per cent of its 2010-2015 pipeline put on hold so far. The largest shopping centre under construction in Europe is Westfield’s Stratford City at 186,500 sq m located alongside the 2012 Olympic Park and due to open in 2011.

EASTER SALES BOOST MARCH FIGURES

UK retail sales values rose

4.4 per cent on a like-for-like basis from March 2009, when sales had dropped 1.2 per cent. Good Friday and Easter Saturday fell in the March trading period this year but in last year fell in April, which boosted the year-on-year comparison. On a total basis, sales rose 6.6 per cent against only 0.6 per cent growth in March 2009. Food sales were boosted

by Easter purchasing, again falling in March of this year but April last year. For non- food, consumer caution in the face of economic and political uncertainty favoured

Month

CBRE PREDICTS STRONG RETAIL INVESTMENT MARKET

The rebound in the UK

retail investment market is expected to maintain momentum throughout the first half of 2010, according to latest research from CB Richard Ellis. While the shopping centre

essentials and replacements over discretionary items. Clothing and footwear slowed but homewares improved, helped by mid-season sales and promotions. Non-food non- store sales in March were 15.9 per cent higher than a year ago compared with 15.5 per cent in February. Helen Dickinson at KPMG,

said: “The timing of the majority of Easter spending, falling into the March 2010 period but in April last year, has boosted this month’s figures and makes year-on-year comparisons difficult. Retailers are fighting hard to encourage shoppers and offer value, which has

RETAIL SALES VALUE: Percentage change year-on-year

2008

January February March April May June July

August

September October

November December

January – July average January – December average

Like for like

2.6

1.5

-1.6 -1.5 1.9

-0.4 -0.9 -1.0 -1.5 -2.2 -2.6 -3.3 0.2

-0.8

Source: BRC-KPMG RSM (food & drink data from IGD)

Total

4.9

3.9 1.1

1.0 4.6 2.1 1.7 1.4 1.0

-0.1 -0.4 -1.4 2.7

1.6

-1.8 -1.2 4.6

-0.8 1.4 1.8

-0.1 1.6 3.8 1.8 4.2 0.7

1.4

2009

Like for like

1.1

Total

3.2

0.1

0.6 6.3 0.8 3.2 3.6 2.2 3.7

5.9 4.1 6

2.5 3.3

slowed the rise in shop prices over the month, but how long they will be able to sustain this, given the pressure on margins, is debatable. Women’s clothing and footwear were the worst performers due to the ongoing cold spell and comparisons with a sunny start to spring in 2009.” Stephen Robertson, director

general of the British Retail Consortium, added: “In food and drink, this was the most intense March for eight years for promotional activity. Non- food is also a competitive battleground as retailers fight it out to entice customers being put off spending by pre-election uncertainty.”

2010

Like for like

-0.7

2.2 4.4

Total

1.2

4.5 6.6

development pipeline is at its lowest level for over 15 years, CBRE predicts that increased institutional money in the sector, particularly for smaller schemes, will help maintain the downward trend in yields. However the agent warned that the sector will be subject to a wide divergence in the performance of individual assets, with a number of secondary centres facing declining rents, increasing rates of tenant default and growing structural vacancies. At the same time dominant centres are expected to consolidate their market position. And retail warehousing could see lower returns, CBRE forecast. “After the exceptional performance in the latter part of 2009, the sector’s returns are anticipated to moderate in the short term as relative pricing has become less attractive.” Stewart Colderick,

executive director of retail investment at CBRE said: “The first half of 2010 will see continued momentum in the retail investment market and while we expect rises in values to be moderate, there are opportunities in all retail sub-sectors provided we look beyond headline pricing and fully understand what is at the heart of it all – the retailers and their requirements. With the retail sector leading the recovery in investment markets, CBRE predicts total property returns in the mid-teens for 2010 with retail forecasts predicted to perform somewhat more strongly.”

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