Table 2: Examples of 95% confidence intervals (+/-) at reliability bulls, it is advisable to use a variety of such
various reliability levels for a number of traits. bulls.
Table 2: Examples of 95% confidence intervals (+/-) at
reliability bulls, it is advisable to use a variety of such
Milk Fat
various
Prt
reliability
SCC
levels
LS
for a number
FI
of
Legs
traits.
Udder
Howe
bulls.
ver, it is not true
MANAGEMENT
that team reliabilities are higher
35 590 20.1
17.1
Milk
18
Fat
0.5
Prt SC
12.3
C LS
1.9
FI Leg
1.7
than the reliabilities of the individual bull in that team.
s Udder
However, it is not true that team reliabilities are higher
50 517 17.7 3515.0 590 16 20.1 10.4 7.1 110.8 8 0.5 1.6 12.3 1.91.5 1.7
Figure
than
2
the
gives
reliabilities
a rough
of
guide
the individual
to the
bull
recommended
in that team.
Table 65 2: 433 Examples 14.8 of
5
95
0
12.5
%
51
confidenc
7
13
17.7 1
0.3 e
5
.
intervals
0 16
9.0
0
(+
.4
/-) 1.4
1
at
0.8 1.6
1.3
1.5
Figure
2 gives a rough guide to the recommended levels
relia
levels
bility
of
bulls,
usage
it is
of
advisabl
semen from
e to use
individual
a variet
bulls
y of
at
such
v
65 433 14.8 12.5 13 0.3 9.0 1.4 1.3
Figure 2 gives a rough guide to the recommended levels
75
arious
366
reliability
12.5
lev
7
e
5
10.6
ls
for
366
a
number
11
12.5 1
0.3
0.
of
6
traits.
11
7.6
0.3
1.2
7.6 1.2
1.1
bulls.
dif
of
ferent
usage
levels
of se
of
men
reliability
from
.
individual
For example
bulls
– for
at
a bull
different
1.1
of usage of semen from individual bulls at different
with
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lev
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a
ls
els
35%
of
of reliability
reliability
reliability
. Fo
.
it
r
ex
F
is
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ample
recommended
r example
– for a bull
– for
with
to breed
a
a
bull
35%
no
with a 35%
85 283 9.7 858.2 283 9 9.7 0.2 8.2 95.9 0.2 0.9 5.9 0.90.8 0.8
more
reliability
reliability
than about
it
it
is
is
recommen
recommen
7% of
d
the
ed to
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d
to
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d
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whereas
Milk Fat Prt SCC LS FI Legs Udder
Howe
n
90 231 7.9 6.7 7 0.2 4.8 0.7 0.7
more than
90 231 7.9 6.7 7 0.2 4.8 0.7 0.7
at
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95%
r, it
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7% of the h
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of
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normally
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35 590 20.1
9
17.1
5 164
18
5.6
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1 3.4
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ou
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abilities
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e bull.
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95 164 5.6
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4.7
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50 517 17.7 15.0 16 0.4 10.8 1.6 1.5
0.2
reliability bred to a siup ngleto bu50% ll. of the herd can normally safely be
99 73 2.5
* SCC
2.1
= Somatic
2
Cell Count;
0.1
LS
1.5
= Lifespan
0.2
FI = Ferti
0.2
lity Index;
65 433 14.8 12.5 13 0.3 9.0 1.4 1.3
Figure
bred
2 gives
to a
a
single
rough
bull.
guide to the recommended levels
* SCC = Somatic Cell Count; LS = Lifespan FI = Fertility Index;
Figure 2: Guide to proportion of semen usage for single
75 366 12.5
Figure
10.6
1 further
11
illustrates
0.3
how
7.6
the
1.2
confidence
1.1
of proofs
of usage
of semen from individual bulls at different
levels
bull at several levels of reliability (35%, 45%, …, 95%).
increases with increased reliability. From this it is clearly
Figure
of reliability
2: Gui
.
de
Fo
to
r ex
propor
ample
tion
– for
of
a bull
semen
with
usage
a 35%
85 283 9.7 8.2 9 0.2 5.9 0.9 0.8
for single
Figure 1 further illustrates
visible that a
how
s reliability
the confidence
reaches above 75%
of proofs
the reliability it is recommended to breed no more than
90 231 7.9
confi
6.7
dence sta
7
rts to
0.2
improv
4.8
e marke
0.7
dly and g
0.7
increases with increased reliability. From this it is clearly
ets
bull
about 7%
9
at
5
o
%
several levels of reliability (35%, 45%, …, 95%).
f the herd to the bull, whereas at 95%
95 164 5.6 significantly 4.7 better 5 above 0.1 90%. 3.4 0.5 0.5
visible that as reliability reaches above 75% the
reliability up to 50% of the herd can normally safely be
99 73 2.5 2.1 2 0.1 1.5 0.2 0.2
90%
confidence starts to
How
impr
ever,
ove
it is a
mar
lso im
kedl
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n
t
and
to no
get
te th
s
at even at 99%
bred
to
95
a single
%
bull.
* SCC = Somatic Cell
reliability
Count;
, the
LS
bull
= Lifes
proof
pan
can
FI
still
=
change
Fertility
slightly
Index;
as we
significantly better above 90%.
85%
are not able to assess the genetic merit at 100% accuracy
Figure 2: Guide to proportion of semen usage for single
Figure Figure 1 1 further further illustrates illustrates - but any how chahow nges the the at confidence thaconfidence t stage arof e proofs expected of proofs to be ver
bull
y
at sev
90%
eral levels of reliability (35%, 45%, …, 95%).
Howe
increases
increases ver,
with
it with is
increased
also increased
small.
important
reliability
reliabilitto
. From
ynote . Fro
this
mthat th
it
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is
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is clat ea
visible
r9ly9 %
75%
reliability
that
visible
as reliability
that
, the
as
bull
reliability
reaches
Fi
proof
above
gure 1
reaches
: C
can
75%
onfid
still
en
a
c
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e
change
confidence
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75%
val (+
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/
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starts
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as
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to
improve markedly and gets significantly better above 90%.
reasing
85
65
%
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are
confidence
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to
tarts
assess
to
reliability
impr
the
ove
levels genetic
mar
between
kedl
meri
y
1
and
t and at
get
99% 100%
s
reliabilityaccuracy .
95%
However
significantly
, it is also
better
important
above 90%.
to note
that even at 99% reliability,
-
the
but
55%
bull
any
proof
changes
can still
at
change
that stage
slightly
are
as
expected
we
95
are not
to
able
be
to
very
small. assess the genetic merit
at 100% accuracy
9
-
0
but any changes at
90% 75%
However, it is also important to note that even at 99%
that stage are expected
to be very small. 85
45%
reliability, the bull
proof can still change 80 slightly as we
Figure
Figure
are not
1:
1: Confidence
able
Confidence
interval
to assess
in
th
t
e
e
genetic
rval
(+/-
(+/-
100%)
meri
100
at
t
7
%)
increasing
at
5
100%
at increa
reliability
accuracy
sing
85%
65
35
%
%
reliability
levels between
- but any
levels
1 and
changes
between
99% reliability
at that stage
1 and
ar
99%
.
e expected
reliability
70
65
to be
.
very
small.
60
75%
55%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
95
55 Proportion of semen usage per bull
50
Figure 1: Confiden
ce interv90al (+/- 100%
4
)
5
at increasing 65%
reliability levels between
1 85and 99% reliability40 .
Mor
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‘Breeding ‘Breeding Briefs: Briefs: a a quick quick guide guide to to genetgenetic ic indexes indexes in dairin y
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dairy
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Marco
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Winters
10
8
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0
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
5
7
55
5
0
35%
Proportion of semen usage per bull
-100%
7
50
0
-50% 0% 50% 100%
65
Confidence Interval
6
45
0
Q: What about using a team of bulls?
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Most pro
5
duc
40
5
ers already use more than one bull in a
More inform
Prop
ation
ortion
on
of se
the
men
principles
usage per b
of
ull
genetic indices can
breeding
5
s35
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eason to avoid the risk of disappointments. be found on the DairyCo breeding+ website in
The level
4
of
305
reliability does not change this, but as a rule
‘Breeding Briefs: a quick guide to genetic indexes in dairy
the lower the reliability of a bull’s PTA, the lower the
4
confidence
25
0 More information on the principles of genetic indices can
that the figures are a true reflection of the
cattle’
bulls pote
3
ntial,
20
5
and therefore the fewer doses of semen
be found
on the DairyCo breeding+ website in
you should
3
15
0
use per bull. Therefore, when using low
‘Breeding Briefs: a quick guide to genetic indexes in dairy
Marco Wint
2010 MEMBERS
ers
2
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5
cattle’
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DIARY
15
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vailable now from CIS
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Phone 01923 695319 to order
Confid
0
ence Interval
Q:
W
your copy
Q: What -1h00a%tabout abouusing t- 5u0%sia nteam g a tof e0a%bulls?m of bu5ll0s%? 100%
Most Most
proproducers ducers already alread
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than
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bull one in bull a breeding in a
£17.50 + VAT
breeding
season
Q: Wh
to
at
avoid
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eason
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disappointments.
te
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of
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appointmen
The level of
ts.
The
reliability Most
level
pro
of
does duc
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ers not alreadchange
y
does
uthis, se more
not
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as thana rule one
this,
the bull lower
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as
the
A complete
reliability of a bull’s PTA, the lower the confidence that the
a rule
the
breeding
lower th
season
e reliability
to avoid
of
the
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risk
bull’s
of
PTA,
disappointmen
the lower
ts.
herd management diary -
figures
The level
are
of
a true
reliability
reflection
does
of
not
the
change
bulls potential,
this, but
and
as a
therefore
rule
the
confidence the
the
fewer
lower
doses
th
that
e reliability
of the semen figuryou
of
es
a
should
bull’s
are a
PTA,
truuse e per
the
reflection bull.
lower
Therefore,
the
of the
Designed to make your life easier.
bulls
when
confidence
pote
using
nt
low
ial,
that
reliability
and
the
ther
figur
bulls,
efore
es are
it
the
a
is
tru
advisable
fe
e
w
reflection
er doses
to use
of
a
of
the
variety
semen
of
you
such bulls.
bulls
should
potential,
use per
and
bull.
therefore
Therefore,
the few
when
er doses
using
of se
low
men
However
you should
, it is
use
not
per
true
bull.
that
Therefore,
team reliabilities
when using
are higher
low
than the
reliabilities of the individual bull in that team.
THE JOURNAL DECEMBER 2009 97
e06-09 management- reliability.indd 3 10/11/2009 09:53:02
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