Which tools ar
Sequential recovery continues but component shortages loom
e best for SMT rework—conduction or convection?
Walt Custer and Jon Custer-Topai
Sequential recovery
continues but component
shortages loom
2010 remains “on track” for world growth
Based upon VERY preliminary data, limiting factor? (Chart 8) but quarterly growth compared to
world electronic equipment sales grew Personal computer shipments (Chart the prior year (Chart 9) is projected to be
sequentially for the third quarter but were 5) have rebounded nicely. “These are good negative for at least five successive quarters.
still down 8% in 3Q’09 vs. 3Q’08 (Chart results especially given that PC shipments Global PCB sales (converted to
1). Inventories relative to sales (Chart 2) for 3Q’09 are being compared to a very US$ @ 2008 exchange rates) were $50.8
decreased significantly for key segments strong 3Q’08,” said Gartner’s Mikako billion (Chart 10). Converting other
of the supply chain. Controlled inventory Kitagawa. “Sequentially, third quarter countries’ stronger currencies to weaker
levels are a good thing. A buying recovery shipments grew 18%, which is higher than dollars effectively amplified the 2008
is accelerated when stock levels are low. the historical seasonal growth from the US$ denominated “growth.” In constant
Unfortunately for some components, second to third quarter. The consumer exchange terms, world PCB sales declined
inventories are already insufficient and market continued to lead unit shipment 5.9% in 2008 and are projected to drop
long lead times are increasingly common. growth, driven by low priced mobile PCs.” another 14% in 2009.
SE Asia is leading the end-market The recovery continues in the Looking forward, the entire electronic
recovery with Japan and Europe lagging semiconductor industry (Chart 6). The food chain has clearly “turned the corner”
badly. Although Taiwan-listed OEMs (often 3/12 growth for world chip shipments was (Chart 11) and is headed north to 3/12=1.0
with China mainland manufacturing) are headed “north” based upon August data (actual growth). The timing and magnitude
enjoying their normal seasonal surge (Chart but Intel’s 3Q’09 financial results (Chart 7) of the expansion will vary by geography
3), strangely their 3/12 growth (yellow gave real cause for optimism. Intel projects (Chart 12), but all regions are expected to
arrow on Chart 4) has turned negative. a 23% increase in 4Q’09 vs. 4Q’08 sales! have “recovered” in 2010.
Perhaps component shortages are a EMS sales are improving sequentially,
20091017 20091018
Electronic Equipment Suppliers Inventory/Sales Ratio
Composite of 61 Public Companies
Large Component Distributors, Semiconductor, EMS &
Revenue, Net Income & Inventory
Quarterly Inventory/Sales ($) OEM Companies
0.85
$ Billion
250
-8%
0.80
Semiconductor
Very preliminary 3Q'09 results based upon a combination of actual and CCG estimates.
0.75
EMS
200
OEM
0.70
Component Distrib
0.65
150
Very preliminary 3Q'09 results based upon a combination of actual and CCG estimates.
0.60
100
0.55
0.50
50 0.45
Chips
0.40
0
0.35
Distr
0.30 EMS
-50
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3
0.25 OEM
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Revenue 137 142 146 154 130 136 128 136 120 123 124 136 125 131 137 154 147 155 152 170 157 162 163 180 167 175 179 197 181 193 201 224 203 213 212 206 177 186 195
0.20
Income 10 10 9 5 -3 -24 -15 -2 2 -12 -2 0 5 4 7 10 10 11 11 14 12 12 12 17 13 10 15 18 15 19 17 16 16 15 11 -7 8 11 12 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1
Inventory 59 61 65 67 68 61 53 48 45 43 42 39 38 39 37 38 40 41 41 41 41 41 42 42 44 47 49 47 47 50 51 51 53 54 54 50 46 44 43
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Computer 13, Internet 2, Storage 9, Telecom 6, SEMI 14, Medical 4, Instruments 7, Military 6
CY
4 Component Distributor, 18 Semiconductor, 12 EMS and 60 OEM Company Composite
Chart 1. Chart 2.
18 – Global SMT & Packaging – October 2009 www.globalsmt.net
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