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Getting better all the time
The recovery appears to be strengthening will increase with industrial production. industry in 2009 and will continue to
and analysts have been adjusting their over the next couple of years.
forecasts upward based on more-than- Final comments • New applications and emerging
expected demand improvements. Global • 2008 solar sales are looking more like a markets will drive growth.
GDP (Chart 21) will reach positive territory bubble driven by the housing industry. • Solar products and technologies will
in late 2009, early 2010 and solar demand • Utility installations have carried the be integrated into existing products in
20090803 20090808
China "Purchasing Managers" Index U.S. "Purchasing Managers" Index
DIFFUSION INDEX DIFFUSION INDEX
58 64
56
62
60
54
58
52 56
EXPANSION
50
54
CONTRACTION 52
48
50
46
48
44 46
42
44
EXPANSION
42
40
40
CONTRACTION
38 38
"The revised breakeven point for the overall economy is a PMI of 41.2 percent. A
36
36
PMI over 41.2 percent indicates an expanding overall economy. A PMI below 41.2
34
34
percent indicates the overall economy is declining." 1/21/09
32
32
30
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 4 7101 4 7101 4 7 101 4 7 101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7 101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7 101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7101 4 7
07 08 09 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CLSA Institute for Supply Management
www.ism.ws/
Chart 9. Chart 10.
20090808 20090715
Eurozone "Purchasing Managers" Index
CEO Confidence Index
Index
DIFFUSION INDEX
70
58
56
54
60
52
EXPANSION
50
CONTRACTION
48
50
46
44
40
42
40
"CEOs are considerably more optimistic than last time about the
38 30 short-term outlook, however, their assessment of current conditions,
while also improved, suggests the economy remains weak. "Among those
36
expecting an increase in profits over the next year, the majority see cost
34
reductions as the primary driver."
20
32
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
07 08 09
04 05 06 07 08 09
Markit Economics
CALENDAR YEAR
www.conference-board.org/
Chart 11. Chart 12.
20090716
20090808
NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index
U.S. Housing Starts
Diffusion Index
100
Units (000) (not seasonally adjusted)
250
80
200
60
150
The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index is derived from a monthly
40
survey of builders that NAHB has been conducting for nearly 20 years.
100
Home builders are asked to rate current sales of single-family homes and
prospects for sales activity in the next six months as "good," "fair" or
"poor." They are also asked to rate traffic of prospective buyers as "high to
20
very high," "average" or "low to very low." Scores for each component are
50
then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over
50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.
0
1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7
0
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7
04 05 06 07 08 09
CALENDAR YEAR
www.census.gov/const/startsua.pdf
Calendar Year
www.nahb.org/generic.aspx?sectionID=113&genericContentID=530
Chart 13. Chart 14.
16 – Global Solar Technology – October/September 2009
www.globalsolartechnology.com
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