P O L A N D Economic Overview
Foreign Investment Agency), EUR 1.9 bln. In comparison with In Warsaw, Poznań, Tricity and Kraków it is below 4%. After
the corresponding period of 2008 this is a drop of around 44%. dynamic growth of salaries in 2007 and 2008 wage pressure
Representatives of PAIiIZ expect that the total FDI in 2009 will decreased significantly. For the first time since 2005 purchasing
be around EUR 7 bln. power of salaries decreased on an annual basis.
Poland, similar to other countries, experienced
a strong slowdown in economic growth.
Unemployment Rate 2000-2009
However, the scale of these factors was much
Unemployment rate 2000-2009
25,0
smaller than in most other European Union
countries.
20,0
Yet at the end of 2008, despite the economic situation, further
15,0
development of the service sector was expected. In the first half
10,0
of 2009 some companies decided to open their service centres in
Poland, i.a. IBM started its business services centre in Gdańsk,
5,0
Philip Morris opened its financial IT services centre in Kraków
and Unilever its R&D centre in Poznań. Increased employment
0,0
was promised by Shell and Nokia Siemens Network. Other firms
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009p
announced that they will open new centres, amongst others – stopa bezrobocia (%)
Irvena in Wrocław. However, the sector of shared services is
developing on a smaller scale than expected.
In the last quarter a significant number of economists upgraded
their forecasts for GDP in Poland. Many analysts believe that the
An increase in the unemployment rate was recorded; at the worst is behind Poland, however it is still too early to talk about
end of 2009 it stood at 10.7% (in June 2008 it was 9.4%). revival of the economy. Improvement of export level is expected
The largest redundancies took place in manufacturing (mainly in the second half of the year, although in the range of the whole
clothes, the car industry, non-metalic products and furniture)
year it it still expected to record a decrease. The relatively good
and the real estate sector. Interestingly, employment in the
condition of the Polish economy will favour strenghtening of
construction sector was higher than a year before. The number
the currency. However, signals from banking and construction
of unemployed is 14% (over 200,000 people) higher than a year
sectors arouse concern, as well as the condition of public
before. The highest unemployment rate is in Eastern Poland and
finances. In terms of the labour market, low dynamics of salaries
the Kujawsko-Pomorskie and Zachodniopomorskie voivodships.
and rise of unemployment rate are expected in the second half of
In major cities the unemployment rate is still at a low level.
the year. This may lead to decrease of the domestic consumption
level, which so far has been positive and has been one of main
Inflation 2000-2009
factors of economic growth.
Inflation 2000-2009
Although the condition of the Polish economy against other
9,0 countries is relatively good, problems on the financial markets
8,0
and wider economic problems have a strong influence on the
7,0
6,0
commercial real estate market. In the past few months a definite
5,0
decrease of demand on leasing market was recorded, as well as
4,0
3,0
a slowdown on the investment market. In the coming months
2,0 the market situation will be similar to the first half of the year,
1,0
however gradual improvement is expected.
0,0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009p
Inflation %
MID-YEAR 2 0 0 9 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL 5
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