P O L A N D
Economic Overview
Due to the world economic crisis, Poland, similar to other
countries, experienced a strong slowdown in economic growth. GDP in EU Countries in Q1 2009
GDP in EU countries - Q1 2009
A drop in both industrial production and retail sales was
recorded. The financial situation of many enterprises worsened
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S H N G P B C Fran B S A Gr P C
Union countries.
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In the first quarter of 2009 Poland was one of only three
-10
European countries (with Greece and Cyprus) which had
positive GDP. According to the Main Statistical Office, growth
-15
was 0.8%. On the basis of preliminary results the office claims
-20
that in the second quarter the growth will remain positive.
Forecasts regarding economic growth in Poland in 2009 differ
among various institutions. Many domestic economists estimate
GDP 2000-2009
that GDP at the end of the year will be positive, while foreign
GDP 2000-2009
specialists forecast GDP slightly below zero.
7,0
The crisis had an impact on export levels, which decreased
6,0
by 4.8% year-on-year. This was caused by difficult conditions
5,0
within Poland’s main export markets (Germany, Italy, France,
4,0
Great Britain). Strong depreciation of Polish currency did little
to improve the situation. Since the Polish market does not
3,0
depend on export, to the same degree as the economies of the
2,0
Czech Republic or Slovakia, it had less of a negative influence
1,0
on the economy than in these countries.
0,0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009f
The level of direct foreign investment in the first quarter of
2009 was, according to PAIiIZ (the Polish Information and
Economic Indicators
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009f
Nominal GDP USD bn 253 303.9 341.6 425.3 527.8 –
GDP growth (real) % yoy 5.3 3.6 6.1 6.5 4.9 0.7
FDI (net) USD bn 12.70 10.36 19.75 22.83 15.98 9.4*
Unemployment rate %, eop 19 17.6 14.8 11.2 9.5 12.8
Total public debt % GDP 45.7 47.1 47.6 45.2 47.1 –
CPI % yoy eop 4.3 0.5 1.4 3.9 3.3 2.7
PPI % yoy eop 5.2 0.2 2.6 2.3 2.6 –
Exports USD bn 81.8 96.4 117.4 145.3 177.5 –
Imports USD bn 87.4 99.2 124.4 162.4 202 –
Current account % GDP -4,0 -1.2 -2.7 -4.7 -5.5 -1.5
Exchange rate USD eop 2.99 3.26 2.91 2.43 2.96 3.2
Exchange rate EUR eop 4.14 3.86 3.83 3.58 4.17 4.3
Intern. Reserves USD bn eop 36.78 42.57 48.48 65.74 62.18 –
Source: GUS, NBP; forecast: IBnGR, *PAIiIZ
MID-YEAR 2 0 0 9 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL 4
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