Second half of 2009—off to a better start globally
Walt Custer and Jon Custer-Topai
Second half of 2009—off to a
better start globally
The second half of 2009 began on a much struggling (Chart 3). Compare in particular • Defense electronics market will reach
more optimistic note. Although global Taiwan/China’s strong seasonal electronic US $381 billion over the next ten years,
business conditions are now better, most of equipment sales upturn (Chart 4) with the
with CAGRs of 8.1% (5-year) and 5.3%
the current “electronics recovery” thus far USA’s still declining end market demand
(10-year).—Teal Group
is in SE Asia. (Chart 5). Global printed circuit shipments
• U.S. government released US $14
In early July, market research firm IC (Chart 6) tell a similar story.
billion in broadband stimulus funds.
Insights proposed a “Tale of Two Halves” Fortunately N America’s “niche
• Worldwide PC shipments were down
3.1% in 2Q’09 vs. 2Q’08 per IDC.
global scenario for 2009 with a bleak first markets”—military (Chart 6) and
Portable PCs continue to be the
half followed by a much better second half electromedical, measurement & control
primary driver of volume and growth
(Chart 1). equipment (Chart 7)—are holding, but
with all regions seeing strong portable
Then in mid July, Intel gave a very the world’s volume growth is mostly in
shipments.
positive outlook for the balance of its consumer products made in Asia.
• (Charts 11 & 12)
year, stating that its second-quarter results Looking forward CEO confidence is
• Worldwide PC shipments are on pace
“reflect improving conditions in the PC improving (Chart 8) and the entire global to reach 274 million units in 2009, a
market segment with our strongest first- to food chain appears to be headed toward 6% decline from 2008.—Gartner
second-quarter growth since 1988 and a better times (Chart 9).
• Global 2009 netbook forecast was
clear expectation for a seasonally stronger
revised up 20% to 26.4 million due to
second half.” Notice the blue circles on end markets
stronger demand from Latin America,
Chart 2 highlighting the much stronger • Global electronic equipment
Asia and U.S.—IDC
2Q/1Q sales growth in 2009 compared to
production is expected to contract
• PC gaming hardware market will fall
prior years.
12.3% in 2009 and grow 5.4% in
7% to US $1.4 billion in 2009 versus
Based upon recent electronic
2010 and 8.4% in 2011.—Henderson
2008.—Jon Peddie Research
equipment sales growth most of the
Ventures
• Worldwide mobile phone market
current “global recovery” is in SE Asia—
• Worldwide IT spending will decline
declined 11.9% to 255.6 million
6% in 2009 to US $3.2 trillion.—
handsets in 1Q’09.—ABI Research
with Europe, N. America and Japan still
Gartner
• China handset production fell 12.7%
20090715
Intel
20090705
Revenue, Net Income & Inventory
2009: A Tale of Two Halves
"Intel's second-quarter results reflect improving conditions in the PC market segment with our
1H vs 2H 2009
strongest first- to second-quarter growth since 1988 and a clear expectation for a seasonally stronger
second half" 7/14/09
$ Billions 1H'09 2H'09
12.0
Strong Q2/Q1 growth in 2009
GDP (% change in Dollars)
World -3.6% 2.0%
10.0
U.S. -3.7% 1.3%
8.0
China 6.3% 8.7%
6.0 Electronic Equipment (Millions of Units)
Cellphone Shipments 505 595 (+18%)
4.0
PC Shipments 129.2 147.9 (+15%)
2.0
Semiconductors (US$ billions)
0.0
IC Market 84 99 (+18%)
IC Foundry Market 6.9 9.9 (+43%)
-2.0
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2
Semiconductor Capital Spending (US$ billions) 11.6 14.8 (+28%)
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Revenue 8.0 8.3 8.7 8.7 6.7 6.3 6.5 7.0 6.8 6.3 6.5 7.2 6.8 6.8 7.8 8.7 8.1 8.0 8.5 9.6 9.4 9.2 10.010.2 8.9 8.0 8.7 9.7 8.9 8.7 10.1 10.7 9.7 9.5 10.2 8.2 7.1 8.0
Income 2.7 3.1 2.5 2.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.7 2.2 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.5 1.3 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.9 2.3 1.4 1.6 2.0 0.2 0.6 -0.4
Inventory 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.5 2.8 3.2 3.2 2.6 2.8 2.7 2.8 3.1 3.6 4.3 4.5 4.3 4.4 4.1 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.7 3.0 2.8
CY
Source: IC Insights 7/09
FY=CY INTC
Chart 1. Chart 2.
20 – Global SMT & Packaging – August 2009 www.globalsmt.net
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