Global recovery looking more & more likely
Walt Custer and Jon Custer-Topai
Global recovery looking
more & more likely
Since gloomy news has been the norm for leading indicator for world semiconductor 12.7% to 36.4 million units.—Gartner
the last year, we have decided to “focus on shipments (Chart 6), a global chip rebound • Worldwide netbook shipments
the positive” for this month’s column. Not looks probable in late 2009.
increased sevenfold to 4.5 million in
that business is currently good (it certainly A recent, modest WSTS forecast
1Q’09 and should reach 22 million in
isn’t), but there are now many signs that upgrade for chip shipments in 2010 (Chart
2009.—IDC
improved conditions are on the horizon (at 7) and Gartner’s slightly improved outlook
• Worldwide server market revenues
least for 2010). for next year’s semiconductor equipment
declined 24.5% to $9.9 billion in
1Q’09.—IDC
Consumer (Chart 1) and business sales (Chart 8) are consistent with Charts 5
• Global TV shipments declined
(Chart 2) confidence indices have bottomed & 6.
6% y/y to 43.3M units in 1Q’09.—
and are now again “heading north” and PCBs are following suit. Global printed
DisplaySearch
the U.S. ISM “purchasing managers” index circuit sales (Chart 9) reached a low point
• Handheld video game player shipments
(Chart 3) moved into expansionary territory in January and are now climbing out of
will grow at a CAGR of 5.2% from
in May for the first time in eight months. their early 2009 deep trough.
49.4 million units in 2008 to 63.5
The Conference Board’s composite On a 3/12 (3-month) growth basis million units by 2013.—iSuppli
leading indicator (Chart 4) saw its 3/12 rate it appears that the world electronic • U.S. 2010 DOD budget proposes
of change bottom in January 2009 and is food chain (electronic equipment,
spending $663.8 billion in fiscal
now signaling domestic electronics growth semiconductors and PCBs) has seen the
year 2010; $23.67 billion for military
next year. worst of this current recessionary business
communications, electronics, and
Global semiconductor shipment cycle (Chart 10). Sure business is still bad,
intelligence.—U.S. Dept. of Defense
growth (Chart 5) appears to have hit its but “recovery” is looking more and more
• Global semiconductor equipment
sales fell 47.9% in FY 2008 to $22.2
low-point in February and is now headed likely.
billion.—SEAJ
upward with a likely crossing of “3/12
rate of change = 1.0” line (moving into end markets
components
actually growth territory) late this year.
• Worldwide mobile phone sales
• e-Paper market will grow from US $70
Using Taiwan-listed wafer foundries as a
declined 9.4% y/y to 269.1 million
million in 2008 to US $2.1 billion in
units in 1Q’09 and smartphones grew
20090620 20090607
Bloomberg Professional Global Confidence Index
World "Purchasing Managers" Index
Index
50
DIFFUSION INDEX
58
56
40
54
52
EXPANSION
50
30
CONTRACTION
48
46
44
20
42
40
10 38
36
34
0
32
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6
08 09
07 08 09
CALENDAR YEAR
JPMorgan
www.bloomberg.com
Chart 1. Chart 2.
22 – Global SMT & Packaging – June 2009
www.globalsmt.net
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