Doug Tenney
He froze as he saw me, not moving a It is no surprise to see wheat acres king. If the weather of late April and
muscle with that “deer in the head- decline with the price structure it has the first half of May is favorable, I
LeisT MercanTiLe lights look,” just as producers are encountered the past six months of would expect corn planting to be
Managing
welcoming the price rally of March declining prices along with higher pushed hard. Many producers are
and early April, but not wanting it to input costs. Wheat continues to be the reporting sticker shock at the prices
the
end prematurely. weakest link in the grain complex. At they are paying for a bag of seed corn.
Market
The March 31 planting intentions times it can follow rallies seen in both It will be most interesting to see if
report once again proved it could con- corn and soybeans. But any kind of Ohio’s corn producers jump all over
tain some big surprises. This year’s stalling price action in those two com- the price reduction for crop insurance
report indicated U.S. farmers intended modities often forces wheat to see price of 5-10% if they plant biotech seed
This column is believed to be reliable
to plant less corn and more soybeans. declines of 20 to 50 cents in only a few corn. A lot of paperwork is involved. If
and includes the author’s opinions.
That by itself is no surprise to anyone trading sessions. It is seeing high end- you intend to take advantage of this
Unforeseen and changing circumstances
in the grain trade this spring. For ing stocks, declining exports and plenty cost savings, don’t wait until the last
can change price outlooks and direction.
months, this kind of result has weaved of competition from wheat producers minute to file your acres report.
Neither Ohio’s Country Journal or
through the grain trade. around the globe, especially from the You will need to provide accurate
Tenney assume liability for their use. Doug
But the scope of the changes caught Black Sea region of Russia. seed invoices. Using detailed farm
Tenney is a licensed commodity broker.
many traders by surprise. The trade Commodity funds continue to hold maps beyond what the local FSA
Copyright 2006, Doug Tenney, all rights
was abuzz with uncertainty as the huge short positions in wheat and office provides will be extremely
reserved. E-mail address is dtenney@
report indicated farmers would be have been in that position for several helpful to get the acres report done
leistmercantile.com. Leist Mercantile spe-
planting at least 6 million less acres of months. Even when July CBOT correctly and accurately.
cializes in marketing strategies and crop
some kind of crop for 2009. High input wheat recently exceeded its 50-day Many of Ohio’s producers were able
insurance coverage. Contact them at
prices along with extreme price uncer- moving average in early April, rallies to get $10 locked in early last month for
1-800-231-6660.
tainty for many crops were partly to were short lived. Some Ohio producers soybeans stored in farm bins. The $4
Last month I was logging some
blame. It would seem very likely that were able to price new crop wheat at flat price for old corn has been there in
cycling miles in Fairfield county. The
any hint of planting delays will force $5 early last month, but they had to some Ohio locations but very briefly. It
weather was still pretty chilly, forcing
soybeans acres to be pushed higher. be extremely quick in getting that done meant locking in narrow basis levels
me to wear a pair of tights over my
The USDA report indicated farmers as those prices were only available during February and March and then
bike shorts (Cindy has long warned me
would be planting 85 million acres of for barely two days in a row. Basis hooking that up with brief stints above
not to expose young children to span-
corn, down 1 million acres from last levels for new crop wheat in Ohio $4 that followed in March and early
dex, their eyes could be scarred for life)
year; 76 million acres of soybeans, up have improved slightly the past two April for May CBOT corn.
to keep my legs warm, as well as a
300,000 acres from 2008; and 58.6 mil- months but still remain at extremely Concerns over weather will magnify
medium jacket.
lion acres of wheat, down 4.5 million wide numbers. in the weeks ahead. Pay attention, it
My colors were perhaps not the best
acres from last year. Many traders had Weather during late March and early could be very short lived.
matched but served quite well for the
expected corn acres to be reduced 2-4 April was not very conducive to plant-
task at hand. I had black tights along
Thought for the day
million acres along with seeing soybean ing corn in much of the Midwest when
with a black-and-red jacket. Apparently
acres jump higher by 4-6 million acres. cool, wet conditions were very com-
“The most terrifying words in the
the sight was overwhelming as I was
The change in wheat acres was the monplace. I would expect that once
English language are: ‘I’m from the
about to pass a squirrel that was gath-
single biggest change with this report. again farmers will prove that corn is
government and I’m here to help.’” —
ering food along the side of the road. Ronald Reagan
No one controls tough broadleaf
weeds faster than Status
®
herbicide
from BASF. You can see it working
within hours. And it provides solid
residual control as well. For total
control, tank-mix it with Roundup
®
.
Want to
Try it yourself and time it — if you can.
866.315.9487
www.statusherbicide.com
see it
again?
Always read and follow label directions.
Status is a registered trademark of BASF.
Roundup is a registered trademark of Monsanto.
©2009 BASF Corporation. All Rights Reserved.
APN 09-01-078-0002
Ohio’s Country Journal • May 2009 • Markets 13
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16 |
Page 17 |
Page 18 |
Page 19 |
Page 20 |
Page 21 |
Page 22 |
Page 23 |
Page 24 |
Page 25 |
Page 26 |
Page 27 |
Page 28 |
Page 29 |
Page 30 |
Page 31 |
Page 32 |
Page 33 |
Page 34 |
Page 35 |
Page 36 |
Page 37 |
Page 38 |
Page 39 |
Page 40 |
Page 41 |
Page 42 |
Page 43 |
Page 44