When? Reaching the elusive ‘bottom’ and beginning recovery
but even including Foxconn, a 10-company know when we reach the bottom and begin
end markets
ODM composite reported a 12% decline in our inevitable industry recovery.
PC industry:
4Q’08/4Q’07 revenues.
• world PC shipments increased 10.9%
The world’s printed circuit board general
to 302.2 million in 2008 but suffered
producers (Chart 12) are in no better shape. • Venture capital tech investments
worst shipment growth since 2002 in
Ironically the Taiwan-listed PCB companies plunged 40% to US $2.18 billion in
4Q’08.—Gartner
(often with manufacturing in China) were Q4’08; semiconductors investments
• world PC shipments fell 0.4% y/y
down an incredible 47.8% in Nov-Jan vs. dropped 23.5% y/y to US $1.25 billion;
in 4Q’08.—IDC
the same months a year earlier. These same electronics and computer companies’
• W Europe PC market grew 12%
companies had become accustomed to VC fell 15.5% y/y to US $1.31 billion.—
y/y to 20.1 million units in 4Q’08.—
double-digit growth since 2002 with peaks VentureSource
Gartner
of over 40% in 2003 and 2006. • 48 EMS transactions were completed in
• netbook shipments will reach 35
Chart 14 shows the combined global 2008.—Lincoln International.
million in 2009.—ABI Research
business cycles of electronic equipment, • PCB & MCM EDA revenue increased
Worldwide mobile phone vendors shipped
semiconductors and PCBs. It is unlikely 2.5% y/y to US $130.9 million in
a total of 289 million units in 4Q08, 12.6%
that these 3/12 curves will bottom soon or 3Q’08; total EDA industry revenue
lower than the 330.8 million units shipped
return to growth (cross 1.0) until late 2009 declined 10.9% y/y to US $1258.6
during 4Q’07.—IDC
at the earliest. If you want to track these million.—EDA Consortium
Global set-top box shipments are expected
cycles on a monthly basis, send a request to • World printed circuit board automatic
to grow at a 12.8% CAGR from 118.1
walt@custerconsulting.com. test equipment market had revenues
million in 2007 and 142.8 million units
This short-term news may not be uplift- of over US $1.16 billion in 2007 and is
in 2008 to 215.5 million units in 2012.—
ing, but with timely, global, food chain data expected to reach US $1.85 billion in
iSuppli
at least you will be able to measure your 2014.—Frost & Sullivan
U.S. purchased US $21.33 billion worth of
company’s performance vs. the industry and
video game systems, software and accesso
20090221 20090221
Global "Electronic Foodchain" Growth
Global "Electronic Foodchain" Growth
2008 vs. 2007
4Q'08 vs. 4Q'07
Electronic Equipment 4
Electronic Equipment -8
Military 6
Military 3
Business & Office 0
Business & Office -11
Instruments & Controls 9
Instruments & Controls -0
Medical 8
Medical 1
Telecom 1
Telecom -20
Internet 6
Internet -7
Computer 7
Computer -5
Storage 4
Storage -16
SEMI Equip -16
SEMI Equip -31
Semiconductors (SIA) -3
Semiconductors (SIA) -22
Passive Components -6
Passive Components -20
Component Distributors 5
Component Distrib -9
EMS-Large 5
EMS-Large -6
EMS-Medium TBD
EMS-Medium TBD
ODM 7
ODM -6
PCB -7
PCB -29
PCB Process Equip -7
PCB Process Equip -23
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15
-35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5
% Change
% Change
US$ equivalent at fluctuating exchange; based upon industry composites including acquisitions US$ equivalent at fluctuating exchange; based upon industry composites including acquisitions
Chart 3. Chart 4.
20090210 20090203
Global Electronic Equipment Shipment Growth Semiconductor Growth Rates
Total $ Shipments to an Area
3/12 Rate of Change
Taiwan/China
1.8
3/12 rate of growth in local currency
Europe
1.6
Japan
1.6
1.5
USA
0
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.1
1
1
0.8 N America
0.9 Europe
0.8
0.6 Japan
Asia-Pac
0.7
0.4
0.6
15 9 15 9 15 9 15 9 15 9 15 9 15 9 15 9 1 59 1 59 15 9 15 9 1 59 1 59 1 59 1 59 1 59 1 59 1 59 1
1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CALENDAR YEAR
Total $ Shipments from All Countries to an Area
SIA website:
www.sia-online.org/
Chart 5. Chart 6.
www.globalsmt.net Global SMT & Packaging – March 2009 – 25
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