Solar: it’s about time
Solar: it’s about time
resetting in 2009 and continue through to benefit the solar industry as public pecially the banking industry. The money
2011 (Chart 6). perception becomes more concerned with will eventually work its way through the
reliance on fossil fuel suppliers. system, which has many concerned about
Grid parity accomplished! OPEC cut output by 2.2 million bar- upcoming inflationary pressures. In addi-
First Solar (Chart 7) reached a grid-parity rels a day to fend off sinking prices (and tion to the U.S., EU, China, India, Japan,
milestone of US $0.075 per kW hour in possibly the competition from alternative South Korea, Canada, Brazil, Germany,
Sempra’s 10MW Boulder City, NV, thin- energy). It is important to note that the Sweden, the UK, Australia, and the Philip-
film solar power plant. price for a barrel of oil on January 2, 2009 pines have all implemented various forms
In 2009, polycrystalline PV cell prices was US $46, which was equivalent to Feb- of economic stimulus packages as business
are expected to also drop as the recession ruary 2008 before the oil prices skyrock- conditions further weaken throughout the
further pressures commodity prices and eted to over US $130 in June of 2008. world.
silicon capacity begins to exceed panel de-
mand. Recent decreases in material prices Inflation or deflation…just trying to Capex wanes
offer a buying opportunity for companies. get control Capacity expansions and equipment invest-
A study by PJC Poly Si Supply & Demand The U.S. Federal Reserve cut the target ments are expected to decrease as venture
Analysis demonstrates that collective mate- fed funds rate for interbank lending from capital and credit remain scarce. Chart 9
rial costs for manufacturing the wafer, cell 1% to an unprecedented range of zero to demonstrates the variance of severity that
and module on a 50MW/yr line (Chart 8) 0.25% and said that it would do whatever each aspect of the manufacturing process
are roughly 88% of the aggregate manufac- is necessary to stimulate economic growth. is affected during the contracting and
turing cost of US $2.11/W. It typically takes 12-18 months for effect expanding portions of the business cycle.
of lower interest rates to work through the Capital equipment makers have seen a
The Middle East effect system.
significant slowdown in the electronics in-
Political unrest, oil production reduction Close to eight trillion dollars have been
dustry but still feel that capacity expansion
and infrastructure upgrades continue allocated to stabilize the U.S. economy, es-
will continue in the solar industry.
20090104 20090104
Photovoltaic Global Demand 2007 Photovoltaic Global Demand 2007
by Application by Region
Grid Utility 13%
Remote Industrial 4%
Europe 71%
ROW 5%
Grid Commercial 49% Latin America 1%
Remote Habitation 5%
S Korea 2%
Consumer Power 1%
India 2%
Japan 9%
Grid Residential 28%
Consumer Indoor 0%<1% USA 10%
Navigant Consulting Navigant Consulting
Chart 3. Chart 4.
20080810 20050118
World Solar Photovoltaic Market - 2007
Total: 2,246 Megawatts
Germany 49.0%
Spain 13.4%
Italy 1.8%
Greece 0.1%
France 2.0%
Portugal 0.4%
USA 11.5%
ROW 7.6%
India 0.9%
China 0.9%
S Korea 2.2%
Japan 10.2%
EPIA 2/08
Chart 5. Chart 6.
www.globalsolartechnology.com Global Solar Technology – November/December 2008 – 13
issue_2.1.indd 13 2/22/09 9:39:53 PM
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