Solar: it’s about time
Title
Jon Custer-Topai
Solar: it’s about time
Happy New Year! to record lows.
By the time that you read this, the
“Grid commercial
According to Navigant Consulting
Obama administration has taken office (Chart 3), residential housing solar ap-
and their stimulus package has begun to
applications represented
plications represented 28% of the end
take shape, oil prices have begun to ascend,
49% of the global
market in 2007, and Europe had 71% of
real estate prices continue to fall, and the the total global installations (Chart 4), with
anemic stock market continues to weigh market in 2007, and Germany (Chart 5) maintaining 49% global
on company profits, jobs and discretionary
2008 continued as a
market share.
spending. The new U.S. president is faced Although 2008 market share was
with the major challenge of quickly stop- banner year as solar relatively unchanged in distribution in
ping this economic avalanche.
farm installations vied
application and geography, the housing
Will the solar industry continue to be market downturn expanded globally as
resilient during these troubling times? for ‘world’s largest’ more (potential) consumers experienced a
Our 3Q’08 composite (Chart 1) of
titles.”
‘negative wealth’ affect as real estate equity
21 global solar-related companies shows and investments soured.
growth at an exceptional average of 105%, Grid commercial applications repre-
but what will 2009 look like for the indus-
2. Creating smart power grid to
sented 49% of the global market in 2007,
try?
broaden the transmission of wind
and 2008 continued as a banner year as
and solar power.
solar farm installations vied for ‘world’s
Obama brings hope
3. Doubling renewable energy produc-
largest’ titles. (A compilation of recent
The Obama economic stimulus package
tion
major installation news in November and
will benefit the United States both short- December 2008 is included at the bottom
term and long-term. The initial economic
Housing continues to be the
of this article.)
package proposed substantial funding
obstacle
The U.S. residential housing market
and support for alternative energy growth
Foreclosures have dragged down home
is not expected to recover for several years
which includes:
prices while lending restrictions have
(especially in the areas with the highest
1. Spending US $150 billion over 10
created a log jam in the housing market
potential for solar) as a result of the large
years to bring renewable energy
(Chart 2), which is beginning to see some
quantity of Alt A and Option Adjustable
technologies to market.
resilience as conforming mortgage rates fall
Rate loans, which are scheduled to begin
20090104 20081230
Solar/Photovoltaic Financials
U.S. Housing Starts
Composite of 21 Public Companies
Revenue, Net Income & Inventory
Units (000) (not seasonally adjusted)
US$ (Millions)
250
4000
Note: Chinese RMB converted to US$ +105%
3500 @ constant average 2007 exchange
3000
200
2500
2000
150
1500
1000
100
500
0
50
-500
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3
06 07 08
Revenue 311 466 630 799 870 1217 1693 1933 2217 2967 3463
0
Income -27 23 100 9 -27 86 177 167 250 388 253
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9101112
Inventory 191 259 398 551 832 975 1038 1277 1592 1833 2065
04 05 06 07 08
Akeena Solar, Ascent Solar Technologies, Canadian Solar, China Sunenergy, DayStar Technologies, Emcore, Energy
Conversion Devices, Evergreen Solar, First Solar, JA Solar, LDK Solar, Satcon Technology, Solar Enertech, Solarfun, Power,
www.census.gov/const/startsua.pdf
Calendar Year
Spire, SunPower, Suntech Power, Trina Solar, Yingli Green
Chart 1. Chart 2.
12 – Global Solar Technology – November/December 2008
www.globalsolartechnology.com
issue_2.1.indd 12 2/22/09 9:39:53 PM
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16 |
Page 17 |
Page 18 |
Page 19 |
Page 20 |
Page 21 |
Page 22 |
Page 23 |
Page 24 |
Page 25 |
Page 26 |
Page 27 |
Page 28 |
Page 29 |
Page 30 |
Page 31 |
Page 32 |
Page 33 |
Page 34 |
Page 35 |
Page 36 |
Page 37 |
Page 38 |
Page 39 |
Page 40 |
Page 41 |
Page 42 |
Page 43 |
Page 44 |
Page 45 |
Page 46 |
Page 47 |
Page 48