TREND SETTER - 2009 Top 10 Small Business Trends
5. Small Business Globalization Will
towards market capitalism continues to be
strong, governments around the world will take a Temporarily Slow:
more active role in managing and regulating their
economies. Small businesses will need to be
While we believe the long-term trend towards
aware of federal, state and local government
small business globalization is still strong, we
policy and program changes and their impacts.
expect small business globalization to slow in
2009. The primary reasons are the global
3. Global Infrastructure Spend:
economic slump, turmoil in currency markets and
small businesses focusing on local markets. We
expect small business exports to pick up in late
2009 as the global economy starts to recover.
President Obama and his transition team are
preparing a massive, $790 billion economic
recovery package. China, Japan, the EU and
Demographic Trends
other countries are also developing large
infrastructure spending programs. In the US
bridges and roads, alternative energy, 6. Baby Boomer Retirement
transportation, clean tech and education will
likely see substantial federal spending increases
Problems Will Lead to Increased
with the impacts likely being felt in the second
Interest in Small Business:
half of 2009. Small businesses will benefit
directly through government contracting
programs targeted at them and indirectly through
We’ve long forecasted that baby boomers will
providing goods and services to larger firms.
stay in the workforce past the traditional
retirement age. Current economic turmoil makes
this trend even stronger. Baby boomer retirement
4. The Number of Small Businesses
has taken a series of major blows. The value of
Will Increase in 2009:
their homes, retirement savings and inheritances
has all declined substantially. Many have lost or
will lose their jobs. Boomers will have to extend
With job losses high and traditional employment
their working years and small and personal
options limited, many will turn to self-
businesses will be their best, and in many cases,
employment and small business in 2009. The
only option.
prior three recessions have seen small business
formation rates increase. And with it easier and
cheaper than ever to start small or personal
7. Generation Y Will Turn to Small
businesses, we expect a strong year for small
Business:
business formation – especially personal
businesses. Failure rates will also increase, but
not enough to offset the number of new small Gen Y will continue to be be more entrepreneurial
and personal businesses. than youth in recent generations. The economic
slump will make this trend stronger as many Gen
Yers face limited traditional employment
opportunities. With their risks and opportunity
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