GUEST AUTHOR –MULTINATIONAL SPOTLIGHT
State of the nations
PETER KELLNERexamines 14 countries, comparing
how they are faring in the current financial crisis.
If you want to escape Arabia and the Gulf states term prospects for their own
pessimism over the credit expect to spend more on
People in the
economy.
crunch, head to Moscow. holidays and consumer goods,
US, Britain and
What explains the way in
Russia is bucking even after allowing for inflation. which the public of different
international gloom over future Internet penetration in the
most of western
countries’ are responding to the
living standards: according to a Middle East means that these
Europe who
credit crunch?
special 14-nation study are mainly the views of locally Some factors are fairly
conducted by YouGov. Forty per middle- and higher-income
expect to spend
obvious. Russia is emerging
cent of Russians think they and respondents – the people that
more on
from the bleak decade
their families will be better off a restaurants, hotels, banks, immediately after the collapse
year from now; only 16 per cent airlines and car-makers rely on
consumer
of communism; it is now an
expect to be worse off. This to keep their businesses going. products are energy-rich country once again
gives an index score of plus-24. The numbers expecting to asserting itself on the world
In contrast, the scores for spend more generally match, or
outnumbered by
stage. America and Britain have
other leading countries are: exceed, the proportion those who been acutely affected by the
United States, minus-31; expecting to spend less. financial crisis: the US is where
Germany, minus-42; and Britain,
expect to spend
it started and, relative to the
most pessimistic of all, minus-62. Bleaker picture elsewhere less. But size of its economy, the UK has
These findings emerge from The proportion of people in the
pessimism does
both a bigger financial sector
a multi-nation study which was US, Britain and most of western and more trade with the US
conducted in October 2008 in Europe who expect to spend
not have the
than any other major country.
14 countries where the YouGov more on holidays and consumer
same effect
What, though, of the
group has built up panels of products is well under 20 per optimism in Scandinavia?
local adults. With the latest cent; they are outnumbered by
everywhere.
Could that be linked to their
addition, Chile, YouGov’s those who expect to spend less. traditions of high taxation and
operations span north and When it comes to longer-term high social provision? Is there
south, as well as east and west. economic prospects, an advantage in being a
Even oil producing states Scandinavia joins Russia, with small-to-medium-sized country
veer towards pessimism, with optimists in Denmark, Norway, these days (providing you don’t
Saudi Arabia scoring minus-16 Sweden and Finland end up like Iceland)?
and the Gulf states that outnumbering the pessimists in Do more consensual political
comprise the United Arab all four countries. So do Saudi systems inspire greater trust
Emirates, minus-12. Arabia and the UAE and also among voters?
Sometimes in the Chile. But pessimism still reigns There is one other factor at
past, when oil price rises in America, Britain, Germany, work. In all four Scandinavian
have produced gloom in the Austria, the Czech Republic countries (and also the Czech
industrialised world, and Egypt. Republic), health care is the top
oil-producing states have seen These differences appear to concern these days, ahead of
heady growth. But the recent have far more to do with the economy. In the US, UK,
fall in oil prices, from their national circumstance than Germany and the Middle East,
summer peak, seems to have varying perceptions of the the economy is the issue that
produced a sober mood in two of future of the world economy. matters most. In Austria, health
the richest oil-producing states. With one exception, care and the economy are joint
Pessimism, though, does not majorities do not expect normal first, while in Chile the economy
have the same effect growth to resume until 2010 at vies with crime for top concern.
everywhere. When we ask the earliest. The sole exception As for the things that will
people about their spending is Egypt, where six out of ten affect global economic growth,
intentions over the next 12 people expect normality to there is an emerging consensus
months, we find that around one return this year or next – that China provides the greatest
in three of our online despite the pessimism of most economic engine, ahead of the
respondents in Egypt, Saudi people there over the longer- United States. In 12 of the 14 >>
www.dmi-news.com January/February 2009 21
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