scientists and engineers through undergrad-
uate degrees for natural sciences and engi-
neering in China and the United States.
600
Indeed, the same trends exist for doctorate
China
degrees in these fields.
500
China (Engineering) If one looks at only federal funding for
(
T
housands)
United States
U.S. (Engineering)
statistical, mathematical, and physical sci-
400
ence and engineering research as a ratio of
NS&E* the GDP, one sees that the United States
in
300
now invests only half the proportion it did
r
ees in 1970 (see Figure 3). If one accepts the
eg simple model for the innovation economy
D 200
y where basic research funding is a funda-
ersit 100
mental component, then we should grow
our basic research funding in some pro-
Univ
portion to our economic growth.
1
F
irst
There are two simple measures of out-
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
puts of the New Ideas base, science and
engineering (S&E) articles and U.S. pat-
*NS&E degrees include natural (physical, biological, Earth, atmospheric, and ocean sciences), agricultural, and computer
ent applications, where, again, one sees a
sciences, statistics, mathematics, and engineering. Missing U.S. 1999 data approximated by 1998 data. Source: 2008 NSF
Science and Engineering Indicators
similar trend of flat or modestly increas-
ing U.S. values versus rapid increases for
Asian countries (see Figures 4 and 5). The
Figure 2. Undergraduate degrees: China on rapid assent; U.S. stagnant
patents data show a more hopeful picture
than some of the other charts in that the
U.S. number is rising, and, in fact, the
United States has maintained a steady
majority for the past 20 years. But, one
0.150%
must keep in mind that these are U.S.
Physical Sciences patent applications and therefore not a
Engineering*
good world measure. Further, one can be
0.125%
sure a significant proportion of the U.S.
applicants are foreign born.
0.100% Moving up the pyramid to New Products,
there are many indicators of the growing
GDP
production of high-tech products by other
of 0.075%
countries. My June article had charts show-
cent ing that our advanced technology product
P
er
0.050%
trade balance has suffered a $100 billion
swing to a $55 billion deficit in 2007, and
0.025%
our world share of high-tech exports has
shrunk from 29% in 1980 to 12% in 2005.
Indeed, walking in to a consumer electronics
0.000%
store also confirms this trend—cell phones
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
from China and Finland, flat-screen TVs
from Korea, digital cameras from Japan …
*The 2001 jump in engineering is due to reclassification of funding and is therefore artificial.
At the New Jobs pyramid level, the terms
Source: American Asssociation for the Advancement of Science
“off-shore outsourcing” and “high-tech”
started appearing frequently in the news
Figure 3. Federal investment in physical sciences and engineering research in significant decline
four to five years ago with such blue-chip
companies as IBM, Honeywell, Intel, and
Xerox. Some might say the United States
can never compete with the low salaries in
Consider some inputs for the New Ideas The first chart is the percentage of the GDP other countries, but one prominent study
base. Certainly, research funding supports spent by the public and private sectors on indicates the availability of talent is the
the generation of new ideas. But, it also research and development. The U.S. por- single biggest factor for companies consid-
takes people. Figures 1 and 2 illustrate the tion is flat, while selected Asian countries ering the location of its next R&D or high-
rapid build-up of inputs to the New Ideas are on a rapid rise. A similar story is seen tech production facility. Further, my high-
base that other countries have experienced. in the next chart for the production of tech industry counterparts tell me it is not
34 AMSTAT NEWS AUGUST 2008
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