Focus on Coal
Demand for coal-fired power generation will be fuelled primarily by China and India
O
ver the next 25 years, the world will become significantly more dependent on electricity
produced from various sources, including coal, to meet its energy needs. Global electricity generation is expected
to grow from 21,224 Terawatt hours (TWh) in 2010 to 33,370TWh in 2030. Coal will continue to hold an increasing share in the energy mix of emerging countries since it is one of the most affordable sources of energy with abundant reserves across the world and particular concentration in the United States, Russia, China, Australia and India.
New analysis from Frost & Sullivan,
Global Prospects for Coal-Fired Power Generation, finds that China is expected to have unprecedented growth with about 945GW and 1,040GW of total coal-fired capacity in 2020 and 2030, respectively. India, on the other hand, will have 201GW and 267GW of coal capacity in 2020 and 2030, respectively. Domestic power demand and capacity shortages will be the key
market drivers for both countries. “North America and the European Union
will continue to be key markets for coal due to large units of capacity decommissioning, which means large MW capacity orders as replacements,” noted Frost & Sullivan Industry Director Harald Thaler. “However, prospects for coal-fired power generation in Europe and North America are currently looking bleak due to the threat of tougher regulations, uncertainties over future carbon prices and the development of carbon capture and storage (CCS), rising engineering procurement and construction (EPC) costs, and low gas prices.” These factors deter investors from
investing in new plants across North America and the EU. In Asia, the opposite trend can be observed, with massive investments continuing in new plants with substantial potential for major upgrades to existing plants, some of which are less than a decade old. The coal boom in Asia is projected to continue for the next decade. Indonesia and Vietnam will emerge as
major countries fuelling demand for coal- fired generation. Japan and Korea will offer limited prospects while Australia, which is rich in fossil fuel, will experience strong growth. Increasing domestic demand and need to replace ageing capacity will accelerate demand in Russia as well. However, reliance on gas and oil in the Middle East, on hydroelectric power in South America and poor infrastructure and political stability in Africa will limit the prospects for coal-fired power generation in these regions. In Europe and North America,
activity will predominantly be focused on investment in the existing base. New coal investment will be minimal until the investment climate becomes more certain. Overall, development of
environmentally-friendly technologies, such as ultra-supercritical technology, CCS, and coal upgrades will contribute to the global demand for coal-fired generation. ●
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