CBRN TERRORISM


This update usually begins with Al Qaeda’s CBRN aims and capabilities, with the former usually outweighing the latter. At present, analysing this highly elusive and changeable aspect of terrorism is done against a backdrop of growing instability in several regions: the Middle East, North Africa, and insurgency in several sub-Saharan countries. The usual deadly combination of VBIEDs (vehicle-borne IEDs) and suicide-vest bombers is killing and injuring civilians at random. Civil unrest in Syria, where a large store of CW exists; Yemen and rising violence in Nigeria; and continuing Taliban and other groups targeting areas in Pakistan make for a veritable alphabet soup of Jihadi threats. From this maelstrom of unrest – and economic crises closer to home - we must try to be Mystic Meg as regards predicting CBRN: will any of the burgeoning groups involved launch a nonconventional attack? Who else could try it? And if they do, what will it look like?


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CHEMICAL, BIOLOGICAL & NUCLEAR WARFARE | 2012/02 | 23


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