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“White-powder incidents represent the largest amount of reporting with chemical events a close second...”
by the MPS in the course of their duties. Recently the increase in reporting shows that a more uniform approach is being taken to logging events which has seen the level of reporting from the MPS apparently spike in the data recorded by the Police CBRN Centre.
Round the regions The second major source of reports next to the Royal Mail in 2011 was West Yorkshire Police. The metropolitan conurbations of the West Midlands (5) and Greater Manchester (6) also reported low levels of events. The Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) noted eight incidents in 2011 with Essex police noting nine. In 2010 these fi gures had been 11 for West Yorkshire, which was the largest source of reports, and nine from the West Midlands. The PSNI fi gures were unchanged, at eight reported events with Greater Manchester noting fi ve events. This fi gure was very similar to the six reported in 2011. In looking at these fi gures it has to be borne in mind that forces are not mandated to report incidents. It is, however, encouraged so as to enable the Centre to build up an overall picture across the UK. In the fi rst three months of 2012 they have been responsible for
submitting 28 of the 58 reports recorded. This is 48% of the events reported to the Centre. Of these, 11 are white powder events, seven are related to drugs, and seven are of a chemical nature. In this period the Metropolitan Police also noted one chemical fatality and two radiation- related incidents. Perhaps understandably West Yorkshire Constabulary comes in second at seven of the 58 events. The remaining events in 2012 are geographically dispersed across the country.
Dr Dave Sloggett has 40 years’ experience in intelligence analysis, counterterrorism and CBRN and is a regular contributor to CBNW.
WHAT DO THE FIGURES MEAN?
While it is diffi cult to draw signifi cant conclusions from the above analysis, it would appear that the level of reporting is steadily increasing. White-powder incidents represent the largest amount of reporting with chemical events a close second. The level of biological reporting also appears to be diminishing, with 18 events in 2010 being followed by two in 2011. This may suggest that those involved in classifying events are getting better at understanding the nature of the threat.
While the incidence of chemical suicides seems to have peaked in 2011 over the reporting period, they still represent a signifi cant contribution to the levels of events noted. The level of reporting of drugs is on the increase with 10 of the 14 events noted occurring in the fi rst three months of 2012. All of this confi rms that the emergency services in the UK continue to respond to a range of CBRN events that occur across the country.
With international terrorists aiming to raise the bar in terms of casualty count set by the 9/11 mass attack, our ability to respond effectively to a CBRN event remains critical. And while most of these events could no doubt be classifi ed as unsubstantiated, the author believes it would take only one major incident to re-defi ne the history of terrorism as far as it is known in the UK – and beyond.
enzer Str. 9 .
. .. Germany 74834 Elztal-Rittersbach phone: +49 (0)6293 73 1 fax: +49 (0)6293 72 219 16 | CHEMICAL, BIOLOGICAL & NUCLEAR WARFARE | 2012/02
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