BIOFUELS REVIEW
will drive the outlook, the potential for another year of good export sales remains high while, from a regulatory perspective, the approval by the US EPA of E15 later this year would set the environment that could enable US consumption to rise by 7bn litres theoretically on full adoption. But looking beyond today’s technology it is the development of drop-in biofuels that has the potential to really change things and make the operation of mandates obsolete.
Brazil certainly has the capacity to absorb significantly greater volumes of ethanol
Conclusions The potential for biofuels continues to grow as price trends
and policy combine to encourage growth in the market. With conventional fuel prices rising over time, the price barriers to alternative sources of energy are falling. Today, it seems as though price dynamics have run ahead of technology as the ability to absorb additional bioethanol within the dominant US market appear limited. However, for US exporters, trade opportunities to Brazil, and
potentially other gasoline deficient markets such as those within the Middle East, could well rise in 2012. Brazil certainly has the capacity to absorb significantly greater volumes of ethanol as the fall in cane production has resulted in supply for the domestic
market falling almost 50% short of demand. The US is well placed to sell into this market in 2012 though with most of the unmet demand existing for hydrous, rather than anhydrous ethanol, the barrier to use remains technology. •
Toby Cohen is a Director of Czarnikow Group – a global commodity house with a highly regarded analytical team and
activities from physical trading to corporate finance. The company did physical business in 90 different countries last year with a turnover in excess of $3 bn in physical
transactions. Czarnikow has a first hand presence in most of the major sugar
markets of the world and works throughout the entire supply chain providing services
to growers, millers, refiners, beet producers, merchants and industrial users.
Czarnikow operates from its head office in
London and a network of 10 regional offices to service clients and customers globally.
E:
analysis@czarnikow.com
16 – 18 October 2012 Singapore
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Srinivasan Venkita Padmanabhan, CFO, Head and VP Product, Invenio Holdings, Olam Group Yap Kian Woon, Partner, CMIA Capital Partners
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