ANALYST I FORECAST
Equipment Supplier Ranking Shake-up in 2012 The severity of the cyclic spending downturn is having a dramatic impact on PV equipment suppliers in 2012. Most leading equipment suppliers are now projected to see Y/Y PV- specific revenue declines in the 60-80% range.
Suppliers that already serve market segments adjacent to PV (semi, display, and LED) have experience in how to manage capital equipment spending cyclicality, so they will be best positioned to cope with the PV downturn during 2012. However, equipment suppliers that had aligned their core business activities to focus mainly on the PV industry will be particularly affected, with further workforce adjustments and negative operating margins likely.
“Supplier rankings are undergoing a transition phase in 2012, with significantly less revenues on offer to the PV equipment supply chain,” added Colville. “The leading PV equipment suppliers during 2012 may be those able to recognize the most deferred revenues that were accumulated as PV backlog by the end of 2011, or those already secure as preferred suppliers to tier 1 producers adding new capacity during 2012.”
Based purely on trailing-twelve-month PV-specific revenues, Meyer Burger is projected to claim the top-ranked position among PV equipment manufacturers during 1H’12, thereby ending Applied Materials’ 14-quarter reign that dates back to 2008. This ascendency is due in part to Meyer Burger consolidating a significant fraction of Roth & Rau’s 2011 PV revenues during 2H’11 and a very strong deferred backlog accumulated by the end of 2011.
However, by the end of 2012, GT Advanced Technologies (GTAT) is forecast to emerge as the top PV equipment supplier on a revenue-recognized basis. GTAT is presently the only leading PV equipment supplier with a significant PV backlog that is dominated by CVD reactors for polysilicon expansions, which have investment phases that are not directly tied to c-Si ingot-to- module and thin-film spending cycles.
The NPD Solarbuzz PV Equipment Quarterly report enables PV equipment suppliers to navigate spending cycle challenges by identifying target customers and competitors, equipment revenues on offer (down to the key process tool level), and the precise timing of each PV manufacturer’s fab expansions by quarter through 2016.
Source: NPD Solarbuzz PV Equipment Quarterly
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Issue IV 2012 I
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