ANALYST I FORECAST


Strong Growth Forecast for PV Equipment from 2013 - 2016 Equipment spending by tier 1 PV


manufacturers is poised to resume in 2013 with strong double-digit annual growth rates forecast out to 2016, according to new research featured in the NPD Solarbuzz PV Equipment Quarterly report.


T


his upturn in capacity expansion is being stimulated by the PV manufacturing shakeout, as uncompetitive production lines are either being idled, retired or removed following corporate failures.According to Finlay Colville, Vice President at NPD Solarbuzz, “Capacity taken offline is just one reason why PV equipment suppliers are planning for future growth. Tier 1 manufacturers are also choosing to run existing production lines at reduced utilization rates during 2012, while increasing the level of outsourced wafers and cells. This is helping to restore a healthier supply-demand balance to the PV industry, thereby removing the underlying deterrent holding back the release of new CapEx.”


PV equipment revenues, (covering c-Si ingot-to-module and thin- film) for Q1’12 fell to $1.75 billion, a 10-quarter low, down 27% Q/Q and 51% Y/Y. However, the CapEx downturn is forecast to finally bottom-out during Q2’12, following six consecutive quarters of negative growth.


The rebound in spending will be characterized first by new order intake driven by a select group of tier 1 manufacturers. Positive Q/Q growth in new orders will emerge in 2H’12, as capacity expansion plans are revised to address market-share aspirations for 2013 and beyond. This will be reflected in PV book-to-bill ratios that will return above parity during 2H’12.


14 www.solar-international.net I Issue IV 2012


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