EDITORSVIEW
2012 will be the end
DESPITE fears to the contrary, the end I am referring to is not some cataclysm coinciding with the end of the Mayan Calendar but a more positive outlook for the year for the UK PV and solar industries than is visible at present. Like an analyst I saw last week in Germany I am more than happy to predict that the world will not end on December the 21st because if I am wrong who is going to know?
All analysis is essentially informed guesswork and considering the end to the industry’s year in 2011 it would be easy to assume a massive drop is on the way for the UK. If you only judge an industry by comparative quarterly or yearly then there is every chance you will be disappointed by 2012 but if you are able to take a longer view of the industry growth then there is plenty to be optimistic about.
There is no doubt that any confusion and difficulty facing companies at present is the FiT confusion, of which there is numerous references to throughout this edition. The government is determined not to lose the case in hand and sadly many companies have just put their plans on hold until April when clarity is expected to return. Part of the government’s goal is to reduce the number of players but are unwisely tarring all with the same brush and accusing companies of taking advantage of the FiT scheme rather than acknowledge the lack of suitable guidelines to ensure consumer safety and appropriate practices. If anything it shows up the weakness of the MCS programme the government put in place to prevent the below par product and workmanship it complains of now.
The new look FiT has a sinister side to it that throws in doubt the government and the industry’s commitment to fuel poverty. Increasing the energy rating on houses that will be eligible for PV subsidies is without a doubt an economic decision. But the ramifications of such a decision will only increase fuel poverty in the UK and hit those most in need of fuel relief and most unable to pay for a new energy rating let alone PV panels. The industry response has also been muted on this topic with the loudest voices the ones concerned only of how they geared their business plans to government promises.
So will 2012 be the end of in the UK market? It will see the end of uncertainty although that may not be evident for some months to come. It will also come at a cost to some companies currently in the mix and it would be a fair expectation to see the number of players reduced in the industry. By the end of the year the UK PV and solar industries will mainly consist of companies with a long term view and business plans that do not rely on high end subsidies. Global module prices will continue to fall and a viable business model is achievable for those in it for the long term. For those concerned that government tampering will cause the end of the industry, or as one company believes, Armageddon, you only need to look to Germany to see that the darker end of analysis is too self interested to accurately reflect the entire industry. The german industry grew in 2011, despite reducing FiTs and the fearmongering analysis of some 12 months ago.
Fear is dictating many company’s decisions and that is the biggest danger facing the industry at present. The end of uncertainty will return confidence to those who intend to remain a part of the UK industry for the long term.
David Ridsdale Editor-in-Chief
David Ridsdale Editor in Chief
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www.solar-pv-uk.com Issue I 2012
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