EDITORS I VIEW
David Ridsdale Editor in Chief
A mixed year
This time of year is the time of the crystal ball as industry and financial analysts attempt to dissect the events of 2011 and provide informed direction to an industry at a crossroads. This is not a job I would cherish considering the year that was and the uncertainty of the year ahead. There are a few predictions one can make with a fair amount of confidence. Firstly that there will be consolidation and there will not be as many manufacturers in 12 months time. That one is easy but creating more specific and helpful predictions for 2012 is not so easy. Last year saw incredible industry growth when viewed from a global point of view but breaking down the figures shows an industry with erratic growth in differing geographic regions depending on the level of local support. The level of local support in the terms of subsidies or tariffs was a key factor for growth throughout the whole industry with all regions supplying incentives experiencing the larger growth and expansion.
Sadly the year did not end on a high with larger economic factors driving countries to austerity and reducing subsidies or in some cases stopping them completely. Much of this activity has dominated industry conversation of late but only hides the fact that 2011 was a great success for the industry. I think Germany has been the biggest success as only a year ago the assumption was the market would decline as the government began a planned reduction in tariffs and subsidies. Except the opposite happened and the country experienced the largest growth period thwarting analyst predictions.
2011 will also be remembered as the year silicon surpassed thin film as the likely main technology moving forward. This was not so clear 12 months ago with uncertainty in commodity and material prices but the extraordinary speed the Chinese were able to ramp up new ventures ensured that any feared supply issues were avoided. This was also the year that China’s growth saw it become the largest manufacturer and market for the industry and the upsurge in Chinese product and subsequent competition saw a a plunge in prices that even the most optimistic analyst would not have guessed twelve months ago.
The Chinese growth has led to other developments to end the year with accusations of dumping of products to other countries in a bid to undermine local product. Considering the huge number of excessive companies in the market such a glut of product and the subsequent consequences was inevitable. Only time will tell how much damage the upcoming legal procedures from both countries will have on the state of the industry. See our perspective on page 14 of this edition.
One thing this issue has done is provide further evidence of an industry divided by technology and vision. Solar and PV technologies are not homogeneous and the opportunities and markets have their own rhythms but any failure in any area is still been perceived as an industry wide problem rather than geographic or technological specific.
Until the industry begins to seel itself and its variability better it will continue to be at the whim of industries that would prefer solar not to be as successful as it has.
Issue I 2012 I
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