1. Feeding an expanding and more demanding world population in the first half of this century, while attending to the needs of nearly one billion people who are presently undernourished and addressing climate change, will need managed transitions away from “business-as-usual” (BAU) in both conventional1
and traditional2 farming. In different ways and in varying degrees, current
farming systems deplete natural capital and produce significant quantities of global greenhouse gases (GHG) and other pollutants, which disproportionately affect the poor. The continued demand for land-use changes is often responsible for deforestation and loss of biodiversity. The economic cost of agricultural externalities amounts to billions of US dollars per year and is still increasing. A package of investments and policy reforms aimed at greening agriculture3
will offer opportunities to diversify
economies, reduce poverty through increased yields and creation of new and more productive green jobs − especially in rural areas, ensure food security on a sustainable basis, and significantly reduce the environmental and economic costs associated with today’s industrial farming practices.
2. Green agriculture is capable of nourishing a growing and more demanding world population at higher nutritional levels up to 2050. It is estimated that an increase, from today’s 2,800 Kcal availability per person per day to around 3,200 Kcal by 2050, is possible with the use of green agricultural practices and technologies. It is possible to gain significant nutritional improvements from increased quantity and diversity of food (especially non-cereal) products. During the transition to a greener agriculture, food production in high-input industrial farming may experience a modest decline, while triggering significant positive responses in more traditional systems run by small farmers in the developing world, and producing the majority of stable crops needed to feed the world population. Public, private and civil initiatives for food production and social equity will be needed for an efficient transition at farm level and to assure sufficient quality nutrition for all during this period.
3. Green agriculture will reduce poverty. Environmental degradation and poverty can be simultaneously addressed by applying green agricultural practices. There are approximately 2.6 billion people who depend on agriculture for livelihood, a vast majority of them living on small farms and in rural areas on less than US$1 per day. Increasing farm yields and return on labour, while improving ecosystem services (on which the poor depend most directly for food and livelihoods) will be key to achieving these goals. For example, estimates suggest that for every 10 per cent increase in farm yields, there has been a 7 per cent reduction in poverty in Africa, and more than 5 per cent in Asia. Evidence shows that the application of green farming practices has increased yields, especially on small farms, between 54 and 179 per cent.
4. Reducing waste and inefficiency is an important part of the green agriculture paradigm. Crop losses due to pests and hazards, combined with food waste in storage, distribution, marketing and at the household level, account for nearly 50 per cent of the human edible calories that are produced. Currently, total production is around 4,600 Kcal/person/day, but what is available for human consumption is around 2,000 Kcal/person/day. The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) suggests that a 50 percent reduction of losses and wastage in the production and consumption chain is a
1. Refer to section 1.2 for more details about what this report categorises as conventional or industrial agriculture. 2. Refer to section 1.3 for detailed information about what this report considers traditional, smallholder and subsistence farming. 3. Refer to section 1.4 for detailed information about a green agriculture paradigm. 4. For details, refer to the Modelling Chapter of this report.