cases may be used as livestock feed. More details on the projections on first- and second-generation biofuels production are available in the Modelling and Energy chapters.
Overall, combining these results with research from other sources we find the following results:
■ Return on investments in BAU agriculture will continue to decrease in the long run, mainly owing to the increasing costs of inputs (especially water and energy) and stagnated/decreased yields;
■ The cost of the externalities associated with brown agriculture will continue to increase gradually, initially neutralising and eventually exceeding the economic and development gains; and
■ By greening agriculture and food distribution, more calories per person per day, more jobs and business opportunities especially in rural areas, and market-access opportunities, especially for developing countries, will be available.
While any of the proposed measures contributes to the shift towards a green agriculture sector, the combination of all these interacting actions together will yield positive synergies. For instance, the investment in more sustainable farming practices leads to soil conservation, which increases agricultural yield in the medium to longer term. This allows more land for reforestation, which in turn reduces land degradation and improves soil quality. The higher yield and land availability also benefits the promotion of second-generation biofuels, which may help mitigate the effects of climate change.