Agricultural sector variables Agricultural production Crop
Livestock Fishery
Employment b) Soil quality
c) Agriculture water use Harvested land Deforestation
Calories per capita per day (available for supply)
Calories per capita per day (available for household consumption)
Unit
Bn US$/Yr Bn US$/Yr Bn US$/Yr Bn US$/Yr M people Dmnl
KM3/Yr Bn Ha
M Ha/Yr Kcal/P/D
Kcal/P/D
1,921 629 439 106
1,075 0.92
3,389 1.20 16
2,787 2,081
2,421 836 590 76
1393 0.97
3,526 1.25 7
3,093 2,305
2,268 795 588 83
1,371 0.80 4276 1.27 15
3,050 2,315
2,852 996 726 91
1,703 1.03
3,207 1.26 7
3,382 2,524
2,559 913 715 61
1,656 0.73
4,878 1.31 15
3,273 2,476 Table 7: Results from the simulation model (a more detailed table can be found in the Modelling chapter)
increases by 19 per cent in 2050 compared with BAU2, due to higher production volumes.
■ Livestock production, nutrition and livelihoods: Additional investment in green agriculture also leads to increased levels of livestock production, rural livelihoods and improved nutritional status. An increase in investment in green agriculture is projected to lead to growth in employment of about 60 per cent compared with current levels and an increase of about 3 per cent compared with the BAU2 scenario. The modelling also suggests that green agriculture investments could create 47 million additional jobs compared with BAU2 over the next 40 years. The additional investment in green agriculture also leads to improved nutrition with enhanced production patterns. Meat production increases by 66 per cent as a result of additional investment between 2010-2050 while fish production is 15 per cent below 2011 levels and yet 48 per cent higher than the BAU2 scenario by 2050. Most of this growth is caused by increased outlays for organic fertilisers instead of chemical fertilisers and reduced losses because of better pest management and biological control.
■ GHG Emissions and biofuels: Total CO2 emissions to
increase by 11 per cent relative to 2011 but will be 2 per cent below BAU2. While energy-related emissions (mostly from fossil fuels) are projected to grow, it is worth noting that emissions from (chemical) fertiliser use, deforestation and harvested land decline relative to BAU2. When accounting for carbon sequestration in the soil, under ecological practices, and for synergies
62
with interventions in the forestry sector, net emissions decline considerably.
We also specifically analyse the generation of agricultural waste, residues and biofuels in these models. In the green economy case, we assume that investment is allocated to second-generation biofuels, which use agricultural residues, non-food crops and are primarily grown on marginal land. On average we find that the total amount of fresh residues from agricultural and forestry production for second- generation biofuel production amounts to 3.8 billion tonnes per year between 2011 and 2050 (with an average annual growth rate of 11 per cent throughout the period analysed, accounting for higher growth during early years, 48 per cent for 2011-2020 and an average 2 per cent annual expansion after 2020). Using the IEA’s conversion efficiency standards (214 litres of gasoline equivalent (lge) per tonne of residue) we project that additional green investments lift the production of second-generation biofuels to 844 billion lge, contributing to 16.6 per cent of world liquid fuel production by 2050 (21.6 per cent when first-generation biofuels are considered). This would cost US$ 327 billion (at constant US$ 2010 prices) per year on average and would require 37 per cent agricultural and forestry residues. The IEA estimates that up to 25 per cent of total agricultural and forestry residues may be readily available, and economically viable (IEA Renewable Energy Division 2010), for second-generation biofuel production. Residues not used for second-generation biofuels are expected to be returned to the land as fertilisers, and in other