INDUSTRYNEWS
Europe Continues to Dominate Solar Market in 2011
DESPITE trouble brewing for the region, Europe in 2011 will continue to account for the lion’s share of photovoltaic (PV) installations in the world, claiming 68.6 percent of the global total, according to the latest IHS iSuppli research.
Comprising nine of the world’s 15 major solar markets, European PV installations this year will amount to 14.3 gigawatts (GW), more than two-thirds of the global level of about 20.9 GW. Europe will be home to the world’s two largest solar markets, Germany, with an estimated 7.1 GW; and Italy, with 4.1 GW, as well as seven other important PV territories including, in descending order, France, Belgium, the United Kingdom, the Czech Republic, Spain, Greece and Bulgaria.
In comparison, the United States is projected to see 2.1 GW of PV installations in 2011, IHS iSuppli research indicates. Notwithstanding Europe’s majority hold on global solar installations, its 68.6 share of market in 2011 will be a step down from 80.0 percent last year, when European installations reached 13.8 GW. Growth for the region will decelerate this year, declining to 4.3 percent.
Slow demand in Germany caused inventory at wholesalers to increase, a phenomenon that is now slowing orders. By 2015, German installations will stand at 5 GW, less than the 2010 level.
In the case of Spain, the government is set to reduce the funding of existing solar power parks by approximately 30 percent. In early March, France implemented a new scheme supporting new installations of 500 megawatts (MW) per year.
“Italy hoped to be the star performer in 2011,” said Henning Wicht, senior director and principal analyst for PV systems at IHS. “However, on March 3, the Italian government changed its solar policies, implementing changes in its tariffs that make the PV market in the country less attractive to investors starting in June.”
Installations in Italy in 2011 will amount to 4.1 GW, up 14.6 percent from 3.6 GW in 2010. Investors are still hesitating and awaiting lower system prices. System prices must reach 2.0 to 2.2 euros per watt to spur installations of large systems.
Euro slow down reduce forecast
FOLLOWING very strong growth of 139% in 2010, global solar PV demand is off to a weak start in 2011. Preliminary estimates of Q1’11 end-market demand in Germany show it running at less than 50% of its Q1’10 level. The gradual price reductions seen so far this year have been insufficient in energizing the market. However, in Q2’11 global demand is still projected to reach 7.4 GW, representing 77% Y/Y growth, according to the latest Solarbuzz Quarterlyreport issued today.
During Q1’11, module manufacturers have been expanding sales channels, taking on a broader range of smaller distributors and brokers in order to both place increased production volumes and obtain better factory gate prices. As a result, total downstream inventories in Europe, and to a lesser extent in the US, have built to unsustainable levels at the
end of Q1’11. By mid-year 2011, the top five European markets will see Feed-in Tariff (FIT) cuts, some as high as 45%. Consequently, Q2’11 demand will be stimulated by the rush to beat mid-year FIT declines, especially in Germany and Italy. There will also be steady growth in other European markets, US, Canada, China, and India.
In 2011, module manufacturers are planning to raise shipments by 55%, while demand is projected to increase by just 12%. After the peak in Q2’11, the industry will face an exceptionally challenging 2H’11, as it addresses a supply/demand imbalance. A period of negative production growth will be necessary to avoid excessive inventory build. Any major changes to government PV policies as a consequence of the nuclear disaster that has followed the earthquake and
tsunami in Japan are not expected to impact demand until 2012. At the same time, the disaster’s impact on the nine major plants engaged in polysilicon, wafer and cell production in Japan so far appear to be minimal.
By Q4’11, the market share of Chinese, Taiwanese, and other Rest of World (ROW) producers is projected to increase to 74%, up from 66% in Q4’10. The leading thin film manufacturer, First Solar, and the lowest-cost Asian producers will be the least vulnerable to reductions in shipments during 2H’11, but all manufacturers can expect to face extreme price pressure by the year-end. The lower cost Chinese and Taiwanese manufacturers will continue to benefit from an increase in outsourcing of production from the major Japanese and Western solar manufacturers.
In addition, earlier accorded projects will be built. Estimates for France call for 1.3 GW to be installed in 2011. And in the Czech Republic, where state support for ground-mounted plants will end in March, PV installations for the year will contract severely, falling to 350 MW from the previous high of 1.3 GW in 2010.
Looking ahead, the highest-growth PV markets in Europe will be Belgium, Bulgaria, Spain and the United Kingdom. By 2015, however, the United States will become the world’s single largest solar market, overtaking Germany, which will drop to second place after years of being at the pinnacle.
9
www.solar-pv-management.com Issue III 2011
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16 |
Page 17 |
Page 18 |
Page 19 |
Page 20 |
Page 21 |
Page 22 |
Page 23 |
Page 24 |
Page 25 |
Page 26 |
Page 27 |
Page 28 |
Page 29 |
Page 30 |
Page 31 |
Page 32 |
Page 33 |
Page 34 |
Page 35 |
Page 36 |
Page 37 |
Page 38 |
Page 39 |
Page 40 |
Page 41 |
Page 42 |
Page 43 |
Page 44 |
Page 45 |
Page 46 |
Page 47 |
Page 48