CPV market analysis
should help to reduce system costs, but it will not make a huge impact. To really drive down the cost of CPV systems requires a significant cut in the cost of the tracker, which is the most expensive component.
The high cost of these trackers, which tend to be a dual axis design, stems from the level of engineering employed to create an incredibly precise tool for focusing the light onto the cell. What’s needed, according to Márquez, is the introduction of “clever optics” that will cut costs by allowing tracking systems to be less precise without compromising performance; easier and cheaper to manufacture; and easier to repair and maintain.
Lenses or mirrors? The tracker adjusts the angle of the modules that contain either mirrors or Fresnel lenses for focusing light onto the cells. Of these two technologies, the latter is becoming increasingly popular. “It is tried and tested. It does the job, and there is a good supply of lenses,” says Márquez.
A choice of lenses will help to reduce the CPV systems’ cost, which can be measured in several ways. Calculating the cost-per-Watt is a very common approach throughout the solar industry, but one that Márquez dislikes, because it ignores the lifetime of the system.
“The lifetime cost of the system is more important than the cost-per-Watt installed,” argues Márquez. In his opinion, a system that is more expensive on a cost-per-Watt basis but produces more electricity and lasts for 40 years is likely to yield more profit than a cheaper system that fails after 20 years. “The cost of energy is probably a more useful metric.”
On that basis, a CPV system already offers the cheapest way to generate electricity in some parts of the world. On islands such as Hawaii most of the electricity is currently produced by diesel generators, a relatively expensive way to generate power.
Most people don’t live in such remote locations, however — burning coal produces most of the electricity consumed by humanity. Today this electricity generating process is significantly cheaper than that associated with CPV systems, but this margin does not have to be eliminated to make the greener technology an attractive option for some companies. That’s because the utilities have to make a profit. If a company can install a CPV system on its grounds, and the cost of the electricity produced is comparable to the price it pays the utility, then it may decide to invest in this technology.
This summer Amonix completed its 240 kW CPV system deployment at the River Mountains Water Treatment Facility, Nevada. Recent efforts by this company also include a substantial expansion to its manufacturing capacity. Credit: Amonix.
It is expected that there will come a time when CPV reaches grid parity in most places. Márquez expects that to take four to five years, by which time the generating costs of a typical CPV system will be around $0.08/kWhr.
As electricity generating costs for CPV systems fall and deployment rockets, many of the 35 or so system manufacturers in this sector will flourish. But it will probably not be a wonderful time for all. “In the solar industry in general there seems to be a trend for larger, more established companies acquiring smaller companies with specialist technologies,” says Márquez. “I think we will see that happening in CPV as well.”
Carlos Márquez is the author of The Concentrated Photovoltaics Industry Report 2010. See
www.cpvtoday.com/cpv-report
“In the solar industry in general there seems to be a trend for larger, more established companies acquiring smaller companies with specialist technologies. I think we will see that happening in CPV as well.” Carlos Márquez,CPV Today
November / December 2010
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