market analysis CPV
showing an increasing interest in CPV technology. Deployment of these systems is also on the up, and Márquez calculates that there has been more than 70 MW of new project announcements scheduled for 2010.
By far the biggest of these is a 59 MW installation in Taiwan that will be undertaken by Guascor Fotfin and Ya- Fei Green Energy. Once completed, this will be the largest CPV installation in the world. There have also been announcements of 1 MW projects by Concentrix Solar, Sol Focus and Opel, which will lead to CPV deployments in Questa, New Mexico, Victorville, California, and Portugal.
Looking further ahead, Márquez is tipping the industry for tremendous growth over the next few years, estimating that installations could approach 1 GW by 2016. However, he openly admits that there is a high degree of uncertainty in that headline figure.
Crunch time
Márquez believes that the future of CPV rests on the outcome of projects currently being deployed, which typically range in size from several hundred kilowatts to one megawatt. “These projects will set the track record for CPV. I think that the market will take off in terms of revenue if companies can prove that those projects have been successful; were built on-time, on-budget; produce an amount of electricity that they were meant to produce; and that they made investors a decent return.”
It is possible that the CPV market could top the 1 GW mark by 2016 because Márquez has only considered deployments of grid-connected solar farms with an output of at least 500 kW. There are also opportunities for CPV systems to provide power for either companies, or for
rural communities that are not connected to their nation’s electrical infrastructure. “Those installations require smaller capital costs, which makes them a good way for companies to get started and upgrade their technology,” says Márquez.
If Márquez’s prediction for a tremendous ramp in CPV system deployment happens, it should not put undue strain on this industry. That’s because a good supply chain has fallen into place over the last few years. The vast majority of firms involved in CPV are specializing in one area, such as the manufacture of solar cells, the building of modules, or the construction of solar systems. “The only company that I am aware of that is completely integrated is Emcore,” says Márquez.
Cell multiplication
One of the key components in every CPV system is the triple-junction solar cell. According to Márquez, no concerns have been reported regarding the reliability or performance of these cells, which are typically used with light concentration factors of 500. The thermal load on the cell is preventing progression to even higher concentrations, which promise a cut in electrical generation costs. However, there are ongoing efforts at improving thermal management, including research at IBM.
CPV system manufacturers now have far more sources for obtaining their triple-junction cells. For many years the choice was between two US suppliers, Emcore and Spectrolab, and the European photovoltaic manufacturer Azur Space Solar Power. Now the likes of Cyrium Technologies, Spire Semiconductor, Solar Junction, Microlink Devices, Arima and Sharp can be added to this growing list, which will soon be strengthened by III-V stalwarts RF Micro Devices and JDSU.
Márquez is adamant that increased competition will be good for the CPV industry. A couple of years ago there were fears that cell production would fail to keep pace with a sharp increase in demand for CPV systems. “With the new entrants I don’t think that there is a chance that there is either going to be a shortage, or a situation where a few suppliers control the market.”
Triple-junction solar cell costs should fall thanks to greater competition between their manufacturers. In turn, this
Sol Focus is winning contracts for larger and larger CPV deployments. In 2008 it completed a 200 kW installation in Puertollano, Castilla-La Mancha, Spain, and this year it finished a 1 MW facility in Victor Valley College in Victorville, California. While many CPV system manufacturers use Fresnel lenses to focus the sun’s rays, Sol Focus prefers to use mirrors for this purpose. Credit: Sol Focus
12
www.compoundsemiconductor.net November / December 2010
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