24 ■ October 3, 2010 • GRAPH EXPO
Official Show Daily • Cygnus Graphics Media
ing market will resume growth, but at a more moderate pace than it has in the recent past. This forecast contains a current state for 2010 and forecast for 2010-2014 in terms of production digi- tal device placements, installed base, page volumes, revenue and retail value of print.
Color Driving Digital Growth A
The latest findings from InfoTrends reveal the power of color
ccording to InfoTrends’ 2009-2014 U.S. Print on Demand Market Forecast, the production digital print-
The economic recession has had a significant impact on the general printing industry and digital was not immune to this. The number of printing establishments in the U.S. declined, as well as overall value of shipments. Limited access to capital along with the negative economic pressures hurt- ing print service providers contrib- uted to a decline in investment in new equipment. In addition to decreased investment, the economic downturn has also impacted print volumes and retail value per page. One key underlying assumption in our forecast is the decline of the printing industry that occurred from 2008 to 2009 (figure 1). InfoTrends’ research indicates that the printing industry declined by 11% in terms of value of shipments (including all
print-for-pay as well as in-plant print- ers). We expect that the industry will continue to decline at a more moderate rate and eventually level off at around the 2012-2013 timeframe. A sluggish economic recovery, along with existing over capacity in the printing industry, are the primary contributors to this continued decline. However, despite this continued decline, opportunity still remains in the market. Amidst a year of precipitous declines in the industry, digital color print volumes remained relatively sta- ble. In an InfoTrends survey conducted in the first quarter of 2010, respondents reported that their average digital color print volume grew by 2.7% from 2008 to 2009. In addition, digital black- and-white volumes declined by -1.1% while offset print volumes declined by -4.3%. The same study revealed that digital color had the highest percent- age of respondents reporting some level of growth, while offset volumes had the lowest percentage of respon- dents reporting growth (figure 2). The respondents of this survey represented both print-for-pay and in-plant printing environments. InfoTrends projects that overall POD pages will actually decline by a -0.8% CAGR, with black-and-white
DIGITAL COLOR EXHIBITORS
Advantage Sign Supply ................. 254 Agfa .............................................. 844 Anajet ......................................... 3448 Canon USA .................................. 2077 Card Imaging .............................. 1873 Collins Ink Corp. .......................... 4625 Color Management Group ........... 4049
ColorHQ.com ............................... 2630 Digital Information Ltd. ................. 204 DILLI ............................................ 3139 Dixie Reproductions .................... 2566 Eastman Kodak ................. 1227, 5227 Electronics For Imaging .............. 2000 Epson America .............................. 617 Fujifilm ................................ 627, 1469 Gerber Scientific Products ............. 246 GMG Americas .............................. 644 Graphic Associates ..................... 3037 Graphic Systems Services .......... 2536 Hewlett-Packard ......................... 1200 Impoproof Arakis Inkjet ................. 106 Impress Systems ........................ 3348 InfoPrint Solutions ...................... 2017 INX International ......................... 2512 KIP America ................................ 1658 Konica Minolta ............................ 2244 MCS ............................................ 4511
MGI USA ...................................... 3217 Mimaki USA ................................ 3212 MKL Prepress Inc. ......................... 768 Muller Martini ............................... 637 Mutoh America ........................... 3535 Océ North America ...................... 1217 OCP USA ..................................... 3945 Oki Data Americas ...................... 3932 Pitman Company ........................ 2611 PressAccess ............................... 1067 Presstek ...................................... 2600 Prisco (Printer’s Service) .............. 417 Ricoh Americas ........................... 2017 RISO ............................................ 3111 Roland DGA ................................. 4338 SATO Labeling Solutions ............. 3954 Screen (USA) ............................... 1637 Standard Finishing ............ 1244, 1644 Think Ink Inc. .............................. 5217 TKS (USA) .................................... 1466 Tompkins Printing Equipment ..... 4622 Vijuk Equipment Inc. ................... 3627 Xanté ............................................ 201 Xerox Corp. ........................... 400, 600 Xitron ............................................ 207 xpedx .......................................... 3200
Figure 1 U.S. Printing Industry Value of Shipments: 2008-2013 Figure 2 Printing Volume Produced in 2009 Compared to 2008
Source: InfoTrends’ U.S. Printing and Publishing Market Sizing: 2008-2013
Source: InfoTrends 2010: Emerging Trends: Print Volumes
pages declining by a -6% CAGR, and color pages growing by a 14% CAGR. InfoTrends’ previous forecast had these figures at -4% and 18%, respec- tively. Despite a smaller market and less than favorable economic condi- tions, production digital color pages are still expected to grow in the next five years. This growth can be attribut- ed to a variety of factors, including the migration of pages from offset printing to digital printing, transfer of digital black-and-white pages to digital color pages and new applications. Unit placements of production digi-
tal devices are expected to grow at a 1% CAGR. Once again, the growth will occur with color devices, while black-and-white will decline. All col- or duty cycles will grow except for the very light production category. This category comprises office devices that are used in production environ- ments. Other categories such as mid- production color and very high speed, continuous feed color will experience double digit growth. Despite these healthy growth projections, overall digital production device unit place- ments declined by -17% from 2008 to 2009. Although our growth projections are positive, some categories may not recover to their pre-2008 levels. The impact that color will have on
the market continues to be profound. Color units were 72% of all unit place- ments in 2009 and will grow to 78% of total unit placements in 2014. In terms of total POD pages, color only represented less than 20% of all POD pages, but is expected to reach more than one third by 2014. It is even pos- sible that the share of color pages will grow beyond this figure before 2014. The digital color production equip- ment marketplace is becoming increas- ingly competitive. In segments where only one or a few players existed, there are now multiple vendors offer- ing products. This high level of com- petition is driving vendors to further differentiate their products by increas- ing speed and duty cycles and adding new features such as the ability to print colors beyond CMYK, operator replaceable parts, and inline finishing capabilities. As the economy recovers, the printing industry will be undergo- ing its own recovery. The end result may be a smaller industry in terms of overall size, but ultimately one that is more automated, agile and capable of producing new applications. To learn more about InfoTrends’ 2009-2014 Print On Demand Market Forecast, please contact Robyn Wuori at 781/616-2100 x103 or robyn_wuo-
ri@infotrends.com.
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