nomic growth is projected to slow to around 4% and be in Another perspective of this trade is the purchase of land abroad
the 6% range for developing countries beyond 2008 (IFPRI, for food production. Responding to recent food crises, a num-
2008). ber of countries have started to purchase land abroad for cul-
tivation of crops needed to support domestic demand (Figure
An increasing share of global agricultural exports originates 30). This is seen as a long-term solution to the high prices of ag-
from developed countries. It increased from 32% in 2000 to riculture commodities and increasing demand for agroforestry
37% in 2006, but there are large regional variations. For in- products such as palm oil. Among the most active countries
stance, Africa’s share in global exports only increased from 2.3 owning, leasing or concessioning farmland overseas are China,
to 2.8% in this period (UNCTAD, 2007). The EU countries ac- India, Japan, Saudi Arabia, South Korea and United Arab Emir-
count for most of the global growth; their share of total agricul- ates; a number of other countries are only starting negotiations
tural exports has increased from slightly more than 20% in the for the coming years. The total area of overseas farmland in
early 1960s to more than 40% today. different countries was estimated at 5.7 million ha at the end of
2008 or 0.4% of the global cropland area.
A large portion of this increase is accounted for by intra-EU
trade, which represents around 30% of world agricultural trade. INCREASING FOOD PRODUCTION
Conversely, during the past four decades, developing countries
have seen their share of world agricultural exports decline from Another option for meeting food demand is to ensure produc-
almost 40% to around 25% in the early 1990s before rebound- tion in the country or region itself, by aiming at self-sufficiency
ing to about 30% today. This contrasts with the steadily increas- and lowering the dependency on other regions. Current es-
ing share of developing countries in total merchandise exports. timates of the developments on the demand side require in-
Over this same period, the share of global agricultural imports crease in production in those regions with the highest econom-
purchased by developing countries increased from less than ic growth or population increase (see Chapter 2). The majority
20% to about 30% (FAO, 2005). of these regions will be in emerging economies in Africa and
0
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