25% of the world cereal production. The combined effects trade and urbanization affect consumer preferences in develop-
of climate change, land degradation, cropland losses, water ing countries. The rapid diversification of the urban diet cannot
scarcity and species infestations may cause projected yields be met by the traditional food supply chain in the hinterland
to be 5–25% short of demand by 2050. Increased oil prices of many developing countries. Consequently, importing food to
may raise the cost of fertilizer and lower yields further. If satisfy the changing food demand could be easier and less costly
losses in cropland area and yields are only partially compen- than acquiring the same food from domestic sources.
sated for, food production could potentially become up to
25% short of demand by 2050. This would require new ways Higher regional differentiation in production and demand will
to increase food supply. lead to greater reliance on imports for many countries. At the
same time, climate change could increase the variability in an-
Consequently, two main responses could occur. One is an in- nual production, leading also to greater future price volatility
creased price effect that will lead to additional under- and mal- and subsequent risk of speculation. Without policy interven-
nourishment in the world, but also higher investments in ag- tion, the combined effects of a short-fall in production, greater
ricultural development to offset (partly) decreases in yield. The price volatility and high vulnerability to climate change, par-
other response may be further agricultural expansion at the cost ticularly in Africa, could result in a substantial increase in the
of new land and biodiversity. Conventional compensation by number of people suffering from under-nutrition – up from
simple expansion of croplands into low-productive rain-fed lands the current 963 million.
would result in accelerated loss of forests, steppe or other natu-
ral ecosystems, with subsequent costs to biodiversity and further However, rather than focussing solely on increasing production,
loss of ecosystem services and accelerated climate change. Over food security can be increased by enhancing supply through
80% of all endangered birds and mammals are threatened by optimizing food energy efficiency. Food energy efficiency is
unsustainable land use and agricultural expansion. Agricultural our ability to minimize the loss of energy in food from harvest
intensification in Europe is a major cause of a near 50% decline potential through processing to actual consumption and recy-
in farmland birds in this region in the past three decades. cling. By optimizing this chain, food supply can increase with
much less damage to the environment, similar to improve-
Taking into account these effects, world price of food is esti- ments in efficiency in the traditional energy sector. Firstly, de-
mated to become 30–50% higher in coming decades and have veloping alternatives to the use of cereal in animal feed, such
greater volatility. It is uncertain to what extent farmers in devel- as by recycling waste and using fish discards, could sustain the
oping countries will respond to price effects, changes in yield energy demand for the entire projected population growth of
and available cropland area. Large numbers of the world’s small- over 3 billion people and a 50% increase in aquaculture. Sec-
scale farmers, particularly in central Asia and Africa, are con- ondly, reducing climate change would slow down its impacts,
strained by access to markets and the high price of inputs such particularly on the water resources of the Himalayas, beyond
as fertilizers and seed. With lack of infrastructure, investments, 2050. Furthermore, a major shift to more eco-based production
reliable institutions (e.g., for water provision) and low availabil- and reversing land degradation would help limit the spread of
ity of micro-finance, it will become difficult to increase crop pro- invasive species, conserve biodiversity and ecosystem services
duction in those regions where it is needed the most. Moreover, and protect the food production platform of the planet.
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